The new world of SoftBank Group and retail options trading

Equities 6 minutes to read

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy

Summary:  SoftBank Group grabbed the attention of market participants on Friday when Financial Times revealed the Japanese investment company as a 'Nasdaq whale' placing large options bets on US technology companies. While dramatic in size and a serious style drift for the investment company the premiums and notional amount was still tiny relative to that of US retail investors which were the direct cause of last week's selloff and intraday instabilities. However, SoftBank Group's style drift requires a closer examination and we provide a take on the company's situation from a credit risk and systemic risk perspective.


Last Thursday and Friday US equities experienced significant volatility and downward pressure with the Nasdaq 100 futures reaching 10.5% drawdown during Friday’s selloff. As we have explained in research notes here and here, the massive rally and collapse in US technology stocks was likely driven by large naked call options volume by retail traders which forced market makers to aggressively delta hedge and given the size causing prize impact. The main question this week will be whether US retail traders got so scared on Thursday and Friday, when the “magic money tree” (buying OTM weekly call options) lost them a lot of money, that they are not participating to same degree as before. If this is the case last week could be the peak for now in US equities with equities entering a choppier side-way market leading into the US election in early November.

Source: Bloomberg

Is SoftBank a “whale” in US technology stocks?

Adding to the nervousness in the market on Friday was the Financial Times article SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally which implied that the Japanese investment company had engaged in large options bets on selected US technology companies as part of a new strategy of diversifying their assets across publicly-listed stocks and not only private companies. While the ‘whale’ issue and SoftBank’s history of big mistakes caused associations to Long-Term Capital Management, the nature of their options was not the cause behind the declines last week.

As the derivatives expert Benn Eifert outlines in this excellent Twitter thread even a large $50bn notional amount of SoftBank call options would not have caused much delta/gamma risk for market makers. Most of the trades were call spreads and estimated to have been options with longer duration (3-6 months) which means that the primary risk is vega (implied volatility risk). Eifert’s overall point is that last week’s move was what is called a “gamma squeeze” and that it was related to the crazy call option volume by US retail investors. As the chart below from SentimenTrader shows, there has been an explosion in nominal call option exposure from retail investors and the estimated premium spend over the past month has been around $40 billion dwarfing SoftBank’s bets by a wide margin.

Source: SentimenTrader

SoftBank does not immediately pose a systemic risk

Nevertheless, SoftBank Group shares were down 7% in Japanese trading today as some investors clearly believed the ‘whale’ story and saw that as a big risk to SoftBank. It is however a big risk in the sense that SoftBank is leaving its previous operating model and suddenly engages in options trading and general investing in public markets. Given SoftBank is back on the radar since its epic decline in February and March it is worth asking the question whether SoftBank Group is a black box and poses a systemic risk to the overall system.

Source: Saxo Group

The immediate default risk is perceived to be low by Bloomberg’s default risk model. The company has JPY 314trn in interest expenses the last 12 months against adjusted cash flow from operations of JPY 2,679trn translating into solid debt servicing. The market value to debt also reflects the general positive sentiment on the company from a credit perspective. The company’s operating businesses ranging from SoftBank (telecom in Japan), Yahoo (Japan), Arm (semiconductor chips) and Brightstar are positive cash generating businesses that eases the credit risk. We do not see SoftBank at this point to be a major systemic risk. The real risk lies in all the investments outside the operating businesses.

The vast and complicated balance sheet outside the operating businesses makes the company somewhat of a black box which is also reflected in its 5-year credit default swaps trading at 180 bps relative to Bloomberg’s model of 60 bps. This spread reflects risk that is not easy to quantify by headline figures typically used in credit models. Monitoring the CDS price on SoftBank Group is a key indicator to evaluate any escalating risk from both a shareholder and systemic risk perspective.

Source: Bloomberg

As the company’s own breakdown of assets show the real risk to SoftBank Group is the value of Alibaba Group which more than half of their equity exposure. Before the new strategy revealed in August which included a new investment management arm engaged in investing in publicly listed companies SoftBank Group was complicated but still easing to analyze. Options strategies also entail leverage and can blow up in unpredictable ways so the next quarterly earnings release will put focus on these options trades and SoftBank Group will be forced to become more transparent about its strategies.

Source: SoftBank Group annual report

The key risks around SoftBank Group is their history of high-risk trades and excessive drawdowns. Their recent style drift into options trading and their new investment arm investing in publicly listed technology companies should cause investors to rethink their long-term opinion of SoftBank. Why would this company have any edge in this new segment? This Financial Times article also quotes people close to the firm’s decisions that the new options strategies have been controversial and basically just a leveraged play on the technology sector.

The entire appeal and idea of SoftBank was to provide unique exposure in private technology companies before they list. With the new venture in publicly listed companies are investors sure that SoftBank can deliver alpha? There are many new and alarming questions about SoftBank, and the coming quarters will show how ‘black box’ the company really is and whether their private portfolio companies can rebound amid the ongoing global pandemic.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.