Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On...
Top of Mind…
- Good Morning – Afternoon – Evening – Night folks…
- KVP is working on a Bitcoin piece that was supposed to come out today – yet not happy with it yet… but will def. be out this wk… come hell or whisky sours…
- So word of the day is Karma, as we seem to be getting a Covid-19 (C19) outbreak in the White House – some of you may recall KVP’s brutal postulation a few months ago… not ethical by any means… but if you want skin in the game & alignment for the greater good of the American tax payer… everyone in congress & the white house should get Covid-19… that how you get structural log-term change… not when its “everybody’s problems”… but when it’s a problem for people who are in power (the 1% of 1%). When it is unequivocally something that we have to deal with, then sustained changes to the systems & processes of the economy’s & society’s eco system finally come to being
- Let’s put it this way, do you think health care reform in the US - that would give healthcare for all & cut our the cancerous bloated overpricing of drugs & services – has a greater chance of structurally occurring if more member of congress catch Covid-19 or less? If Trump catches it or does not catch it?
- Skin in the game is everything… because it aligns responsibility & accountability…
- On another note & let’s not get too sensational, but the probability of both Trump & Biden getting C-19 & not making it, is not high, yet its also not zero
- In such a situation, default would be pence for the Reps (Assuming his wife is on-board of course) & all of a sudden the Bern would be back on the dems squad. By the way, if it was only Trump who got taken off the Map, KVP feels that Pence would wipe the floor with Biden… we are talking left, right, forward, backwards, behind the doors, the little knock & crannies… completely wipe the floor with sleepy joe…
- Still think Biden has one potential kryptonite move left… & its not an odd gaff here or weird hug there… its who he picks for VP. Now the killer move would be Obi… but Obi ain’t coming back (sigh)… plus Obi’s still got bodies & baggage for pushing through the affordable health care act (which by the way, this would have been the pristine environment to put that across).
- AOC would be perfect for the populist & younger voters, yet she’s still too young herself (need to be at least 35). Bernie, Warren, Bloomberg would be 100% wins, but not sure how likely the boys would be comfortable to play #2. An outsider be a complete roll of the dice, Will Smith, Mark Cuban anybody? KVP personally would pick either Mitt Romney from Utah (for the bipartisan move of the century), Warren (For the certain win) or my personal fav, maverick & entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
- If you are talking about one of the few real key tail risks to a big reversal lower in equities, its Biden being taken out by C-19 & Bernie stepping up to the plate (while shaking 30K email Hillary off his shoulders)… that would initially freak equity markets out… the probability of such an event is likely not +50%, yet its not zero… so maybe 5-10%? Still it’s interesting to add on the contingency board…
- Our resident Texan, & Saxo head of currency strategy did a great US political piece that is worth a look: It is time for markets to consider a Biden presidency
On the Radar Today
Inflation themed day, today.
It worth noting that o/n we got much better than expected New Loans out of CH at 1700B a 1300B e 2850 B… also we are hearing of BTE consumption happening as well as demand for industrial metals…
- CH: CPI 3.3%a 3.7%e 4.3%p, PPI -3.1%a -2.6%e -1.5%p (note that deflationary to the rest of the world)
- US: CPI 1.7%e 2.1%p, FOMC speakers Harker + Quarles + Mester, UST bond auction
- JP: Leading Indicators
- AU: NAB Business Confidence -46a -65p
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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