Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On... Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On... Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On...

Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Strats-Kay-88x88
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: And The Beat Goes On...

  

Top of Mind…

  • Good Morning – Afternoon – Evening – Night folks…
  • KVP is working on a Bitcoin piece that was supposed to come out today – yet not happy with it yet… but will def. be out this wk… come hell or whisky sours…
  • So word of the day is Karma, as we seem to be getting a Covid-19 (C19) outbreak in the White House – some of you may recall KVP’s brutal postulation a few months ago… not ethical by any means… but if you want skin in the game & alignment for the greater good of the American tax payer… everyone in congress & the white house should get Covid-19… that how you get structural log-term change… not when its “everybody’s problems”… but when it’s a problem for people who are in power (the 1% of 1%). When it is unequivocally something that we have to deal with, then sustained changes to the systems & processes of the economy’s & society’s eco system finally come to being
  • Let’s put it this way, do you think health care reform in the US - that would give healthcare for all & cut our the cancerous bloated overpricing of drugs & services – has a greater chance of structurally occurring if more member of congress catch Covid-19 or less? If Trump catches it or does not catch it?
  • Skin in the game is everything… because it aligns responsibility & accountability…
  • On another note & let’s not get too sensational, but the probability of both Trump & Biden getting C-19 & not making it, is not high, yet its also not zero
  • In such a situation, default would be pence for the Reps (Assuming his wife is on-board of course) & all of a sudden the Bern would be back on the dems squad. By the way, if it was only Trump who got taken off the Map, KVP feels that Pence would wipe the floor with Biden… we are talking left, right, forward, backwards, behind the doors, the little knock & crannies… completely wipe the floor with sleepy joe…  
  • Still think Biden has one potential kryptonite move left… & its not an odd gaff here or weird hug there… its who he picks for VP. Now the killer move would be Obi… but Obi ain’t coming back (sigh)… plus Obi’s still got bodies & baggage for pushing through the affordable health care act (which by the way, this would have been the pristine environment to put that across).
  • AOC would be perfect for the populist & younger voters, yet she’s still too young herself (need to be at least 35). Bernie, Warren, Bloomberg would be 100% wins, but not sure how likely the boys would be comfortable to play #2. An outsider be a complete roll of the dice, Will Smith, Mark Cuban anybody?  KVP personally would pick either Mitt Romney from Utah (for the bipartisan move of the century), Warren (For the certain win) or my personal fav, maverick & entrepreneur Andrew Yang.   
  • If you are talking about one of the few real key tail risks to a big reversal lower in equities, its Biden being taken out by C-19 & Bernie stepping up to the plate (while shaking 30K email Hillary off his shoulders)… that would initially freak equity markets out… the probability of such an event is likely not +50%, yet its not zero… so maybe 5-10%? Still it’s interesting to add on the contingency board…

 

On the Radar Today

Inflation themed day, today.

It worth noting that o/n we got much better than expected New Loans out of CH at 1700B a 1300B e 2850 B… also we are hearing of BTE consumption happening as well as demand for industrial metals…

  • CH: CPI 3.3%a 3.7%e 4.3%p, PPI -3.1%a -2.6%e -1.5%p (note that deflationary to the rest of the world)
  • US: CPI 1.7%e 2.1%p, FOMC speakers Harker + Quarles + Mester, UST bond auction
  • JP: Leading Indicators
  • AU: NAB Business Confidence -46a -65p

-

Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.