Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 41, China is out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month, Final Quarter

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 41, China out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month = Final Quarter = New POTUS

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 41

  • Hope everyone had an epic restful weekend

  • What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?

  • Focus: Well folks, basically a month to the pivotal US election day, so VP debate between Harris & Pence may be the only actual “debate”, despite us still having two more meet-ups scheduled between Trump & Biden. Worth noting Harris is a prosecutor by background & Pence’s speeches have tended to be cardboard tasty.

  • It’s worth noting, the debates are not mandated by the constitution & part of the Dragon’s ring-side coaching to one of the teams is to bin one of the debates, among other advice going forward.

  • Markets: New Month, Final Quarter means the potential noise in price action of last wk is out of the way. We could potentially be going back into a sustained run of risk-assets doing well & the USD being sold – i.e. its seems to be so consensus that its going to get volatile on the election outcome, that KVP is starting to think that pathway is going to get priced out.

  • Economics: Final Service PMIs across the board, including US ISM Non-mfg PMI. We got some industrial production data out of Europe including German Factory orders. The US will see Trade Balance, JOLTS & the usual weekly jobs data (ticked lower last wk)

  • Politics: VP Debate Wed 7 Oct – Its going down! Harris is going to go through Pence like a Vegan on a Meat Lover.

  • Central Banks: RBA 0.25 % e/p

  • ECB’s Lagarde set to speak on Tue 6 Oct 21:00 SGT & Wed 20:00 SGT

  • Also have BoE’s Bailey Thu @ 15:25 SGT & BoC Macklem Thu @ 2-:30 SGT

  • Fed Speak: Evans, Bostic, Powell Tue 6 Oct @ 22:40 SGT, Harker, Kaplan, Rosengren, Williams

  • FOMC Minutes due early Thu Asia, Wed evening ET US - likely nothing new here… yet obviously if YCC is coming back in focus & concerns about a slowdown in fiscal support may move markets.

  • Holidays: China has been out since last Thu & only gets back in on Fri this wk

  • Other: We got daylights saving time shift in Australia over the wkd, taking us back to 3hrs with SG from 2.

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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity |Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

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