Macro Dragon WK 14: +$3 trn Infra, US NFP, Block Trades & Chinese ADRs, Archegos Capital, Quarter End + Easter WKD

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: +$3 trn Infra, US NFP, Block Trades & Chinese ADRs, Archegos Capital, Quarter End + Easter WKD

 

Top of Mind…

  • The other is a headline from one of Japan’s biggest banks Nomura announcing a potential $2bn loss linked to a client (could be less or more) – which has sent the name down c. -16%, which is +4x standard deviations on 30d vol of 3.6%, likely biggest drop in 10yrs.

  • With the stock at c. 611 yen, that leaves the bank with a mkt cap of 1.9 trn yen or c. USD 19 bn & as per their statement a Tier 1 capital that is well above the required lvl. Macro wise KVP likes financials (& insurers even more), as US dominance means global yields will continue to move up.

Rest of the Week & Other Reflections

  • Again probability generally higher of noise > signal into quarter end & quarter start – on top of which we have for most of the trading world a four day wk, with Friday being a public holiday. With that said, KVP feel's strongly that US Dominance theme is underpriced from a cross-asset perspective... particularly in regards to further USD strength & a lot more weakness in gold. 

  • Econ wise final Mfg. PMIs across the board, whilst in the US ISM mfg. 61.4e 60.8p, ADPs, NFP 643k e 379k p, AHE 4.5%e 5.3%p & unemployment rate are due 6.0%e 6.2%p.

  • CBs: Outside of Chile 0.50% e/p, no major Central Banks scheduled 

  • Fed Speak: We got Waller, Quarles, Williams, Harker & Bostic on the docket 

  • Hols: Most markets are out on Fri, worth noting the Danes are out from Thu & back in on Tue 6 Apr. Most of Europe will be out both Fri & Mon. AU, NZ & CH will also be out on Mon.

  • Other: We got daylights saving time shift over the wkd in Europe. This coming wkd of Apr will see daylights saving time shift in AU & NZ.

  • Dragon Interviews U-Tube Channel for easier play-ability…

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Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way

Namaste,

KVP

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