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US Index Watch: SPX, NDX, DJIA - 9 July
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
US Index Levels to Watch – 9 July
Key trading levels and signals to watch in US indices
Summary:
A fresh dose of trade uncertainty and some lofty valuations has seen the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 retreat from the record highs hit last week, whilst the Dow Jones has also pullback before reaching its all-time high from earlier this year. Volatility has declined with the VIX dropping to 16.81, while short-term gauges VIX1D and VIX9D fell sharply to 10.53 and 13.90. But earnings season approaches and tariff uncertainty persists.
Wall Street has turned bullish on US stocks - Goldman Sachs has joined JPMorgan, Barclays, Citigroup and Deutsche in raising year-end forecasts for the S&P 500, suggesting it could rally 11% from last week’s record highs.
Tariff uncertainty reigns again though – potential triggers for a selloff this summer could include reigniting tariff worries (eg retaliatory escalation as we briefly saw in April), stagflation concerns in the US as tariff impact bites...market is currently pricing in several cuts but higher inflation prints could push this out and softer consumer weight on growth outlook. Plus we have frontloading of tariffs which needs payback. Bond and equity markets are not telling the same story - one will have to give - either we have stronger growth and higher yields or lower growth and yields and stocks fall. Plus watch Japanese bond yields – last summer the unwind of the carry caused a selloff and it could happen again.
S&P 500
The bullish outside day on 23 June and subsequent gap higher ignited the rally to the fresh ATHs last week at 6,284. Bulls can look to dips towards the 23.6% retracement around 6,200 to offer potential entry points for push up to new highs. Bears will look at a breakdown here and push to test the trend support off the April lows as MACD and RSI momentum looks stretched. Playbook is 2018 – runup followed by bottom in March-April before a summer rally. Risk is if this plays out then Q3-Q4 starts to look choppy and tougher for bulls.
US Tech 100 NAS
June 23rd outside candle and gap up chimed with a golden cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moving above the 200-day line to clear the way for bulls to push on to a record high. As noted before, the last time we saw this move it kicked off the monster 2023-25 rally. NDX rallied 34% in the year after the last occurrence on March 13th, and analysis going back to 1980 suggests the indicator is a bullish signal. Wedge & broadening top could see leg down, but bubble before that to clear 23k?
US 30 Wall Street
Having traded below its 200DMA for a few days the lower Bollinger was tested and held and we on June 23rd saw a clear upside breach of the 200-day line that takes price action back to early March levels but needs to hold for this indecisiveness on the MACD to end. Possible golden cross forming. Momentum looks stretched per the MACD, April-Jun rally trendline now acting as resistance.
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