Macro Dragon WK # 32: New Month, Same Noise? Aug likely key events will be US NFP this wk, then US CPI, Powell at Jackson Hole, Debt Ceiling + Delta Variant Shuffle Macro Dragon WK # 32: New Month, Same Noise? Aug likely key events will be US NFP this wk, then US CPI, Powell at Jackson Hole, Debt Ceiling + Delta Variant Shuffle Macro Dragon WK # 32: New Month, Same Noise? Aug likely key events will be US NFP this wk, then US CPI, Powell at Jackson Hole, Debt Ceiling + Delta Variant Shuffle

Macro Dragon WK # 32: New Month, Same Noise? Aug likely key events will be US NFP this wk, then US CPI, Powell at Jackson Hole, Debt Ceiling + Delta Variant Shuffle

Macro 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon WK # 32: New Month, Same Noise? Aug likely key events will be US NFP this wk, then US CPI, Powell at Jackson Hole, Debt Ceiling + Delta Variant Shuffle 

Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #32
  • Have a great start to the new month & wk ahead folks.
  • Continuing themes are of course Fed on Tapering [Jackson Hole, Aug 27-28], concerns on Delta variant & level of restrictions-lockdowns coming back (i.e. parts of US blinking with Masks back, etc), US debt ceiling, China regulations, China & HK securities sliding (in particular tech) & wrap up of earnings.  
  • August is last full blown summer month in the Northern Hemisphere, so that participation & liquidity is still likely more noise than signal.
  • Wk ahead likely focus on US NFP on Fri, as well as ISM data on Mon & Wed, with final PMIs across the board!
  • China Caixin PMI already in with a miss 50.3a 51.0e, continuing to show that the 2nd largest economy keeps cooling off & likely raising the delta (& gamma) of accommodative policy action in the 2H of the year.
  • For context the HSI was down -10% for the month of Jul, its worst monthly drawdown since Oct 2018. Since 2009 (post GFC) the HSI has only had 6 other months of double digit drawdowns or c. 4.3% of the 139 months.

    3211  HSI
  • Point is, we are in an obvious oversold territory – only thing is, a number of folks, KVP included thought we were there 2-3wks back… For the Long Side of the book, keep building that line, investing in China has always had regulatory & policy risks, nothing has changed there.
  • So we need a combination of volumes to drop on the down days, natural price consolidation and/or positive policy response, as well as follow throughs on positive price action -i.e. cannot have the Thu massively up to Fri massively down price action that we saw last wk.
  • And yes, sentiment is abysmal & there are no silver lining clouds – outside of time decay – that KVP can currently see. So for now, watch the price action & volume.
  • And yes, Weibo [WB $50.40] continues to be up +38% YTD in absolute terms (c. +90% in relative value terms vs. say JD Health Int [6618 HK], or c. +60% vs. Tencent [700 HK]), which is an echoing dislocation that we’ve talked about in a number of places:

Macro Dragon WK # 31: The Fed, China Tech [DIDI -42%, Tencent -12% but Weibo +44%!], Earnings from TSLA, AMZN, FB, MSFT plus Robinhood IPO [HOOD]

Macro Dragon Reflections: Divergence in China Tech Names, WB +47% YTD vs. range of -6% to -18% to -27% on Tencent, JD.Com & DiDi

321 China Tech

  • Lastly we continue to see a disconnect between real rates breaking lower at -2%, whilst gold is still failing to push higher at $1811. Meanwhile BTC which had a nice break to c. $42,600 is now back again south of the pivotal $40,000 lvl. Def. watch both of this spaces – as renewed lockdown & restrictions in the US that spur further fiscal aid (more stemies) would be a boost for risk assets, & in particular crypto & gold (i.e. debasement, excessive debt & diversification theme – all of which are structural & long-term in nature).   
  • Central Banks: RBA 0.10% e/p, BSB 5.25%e 4.25%p, BoE 0.10%e/p, RBI 4.00% e/p
  • Brazil expected to lean the charge with 75bp hike, could def. do +100bp as inflation keeps going higher with last print at +8.35%a +8.06%p. RBA, BoE & RBI are expected to be a wash.
  • Quite bit of Fed speak, yet likely key will be Vice Chair Clarida speaking at the Peterson Institute on Wed.
  • Econ data: US ISM mfg. PMI 60.8e 60.6p, ISM Serv. 60.5e 60.1e, AHE YoY 3.9%e 3.6%p, U/R 5.7%e 5.9%p & NFP 895K e 850 K p. China CPI & PPI will also be key this wk.    
  • Holidays: AU is out this Mon on a bank holiday.

    SG will be out next Mon given National Day, Wuhuu!!! KVP’s adopted home country turns 56 yrs young! Pretty remarkable that such a young nation – younger than most people grandparents & even parents – has achieved so many things that the vast majority of nations have failed to do. Also happy on the developments on vaccine front, knocking on c. 60% who’ve received both does, whilst over 75% have received their first.      
  • Other: Yes, yes we are all suffering from Covid Fatigue… hold the line. This too shall pass. Rather than focusing on what we don’t have or cannot control, lets thrive on what we can do & the abundance that we do have.


Recent Works to Keep In Heavy Rotation


Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992