Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23... 

 

Top of Mind…

  • New week, new month – lets all make it a strong run to the final month of 2Q / 1H 20. Damn, time flies when you are in lock-down! Stay strong folks, we’ll get through this.

  • Think as Jun kicks in, summer in the Northern Hemisphere is what its all about – numero uno event to keep on your radar (outside of C19 implications, re-openings, potential 2nd waves, US/CH trade breakdown) is that at some point focus will gravitate towards the Nov 3 Biden vs. Trump. Likely less interesting for assets overall – compared to a Trump vs. Sanders/Warren – yet could have huge implication to US anti or pro globalization… i.e. Biden would likely pivot back to Asia big time whilst trump would likely continue to double down on his modus operandi (consistency in being inconsistent, yet no matter what, equities should rise).   

  • As we talked about in our May Macro Dragon’s monthly high probability exercise, still expect more fiscal stimulus & monetary stimulus in the quarters to years ahead… i.e. we are not done, with central bank & government debt balance sheet expansions…  
  • Economic data wise: This week is all about final PMIs across the board, ISMs from the US, including NFP, U/R & AHE. Still feel this is a market geared towards bullish interpretation regardless of economic data & the PMIs (apart from China) are likely to get more interesting from 3Q… as that should be when most of the world is “open” at least locally.  
  • Central Banks: Quite a few central banks on the radar this wk including the ECB, RBA & BoC.
  • Holidays: SW, FR, GER & NZ out on Mon, IT on Tues
  • US: Final PMIs, ISMs, ADP, Factory Orders, AHE, U/R & NFP
  • CH: Final Official PMIs mfg. 51.1e 50.8, serv. 53.5e 53.2p & China Caixin PMIs mfg. 49.6e 49.4, serv. 47.5e 44.4p
  • EZ: Final PMIs, regional jobs data, Retail Sales, ECM, GER Factory Orders  
  • JP: Capital Spending, Monetary Base, Household Spending, Leading Indicators
  • UK: Finals PMIs, M4 Supply, Mortgage Approvals, Construction PMI, Gfk Cons. Conf.
  • AU: AIG mfg. + construction Index, MI Inflation, Current Account, RBA, GDP Q/Q, Retail Sales
  • NZ: Building Consents, Overseas Trade, Milk Auction, ANZ Commodity Prices
  • CA: Mfg. PMI, BoC, Trade Balance, Jobs data, Ivey PMI

 

If You Have Not, Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…

  • May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks – again keep re-flagging this one, as there is a lot of shelf life in the themes discussed here

USDCNH touching on ATHs – all about +7.20 & Aussie could see massive reversal - & why unlike in Jan this year, its to Trump’s advantage to break up the trade deal with China

-

Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

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