Login Open account
Singapore
Saxo Markets uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By using our website you agree to our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy.
Okay

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 23... 

 

Top of Mind…

  • New week, new month – lets all make it a strong run to the final month of 2Q / 1H 20. Damn, time flies when you are in lock-down! Stay strong folks, we’ll get through this.

  • Think as Jun kicks in, summer in the Northern Hemisphere is what its all about – numero uno event to keep on your radar (outside of C19 implications, re-openings, potential 2nd waves, US/CH trade breakdown) is that at some point focus will gravitate towards the Nov 3 Biden vs. Trump. Likely less interesting for assets overall – compared to a Trump vs. Sanders/Warren – yet could have huge implication to US anti or pro globalization… i.e. Biden would likely pivot back to Asia big time whilst trump would likely continue to double down on his modus operandi (consistency in being inconsistent, yet no matter what, equities should rise).   

  • As we talked about in our May Macro Dragon’s monthly high probability exercise, still expect more fiscal stimulus & monetary stimulus in the quarters to years ahead… i.e. we are not done, with central bank & government debt balance sheet expansions…  
  • Economic data wise: This week is all about final PMIs across the board, ISMs from the US, including NFP, U/R & AHE. Still feel this is a market geared towards bullish interpretation regardless of economic data & the PMIs (apart from China) are likely to get more interesting from 3Q… as that should be when most of the world is “open” at least locally.  
  • Central Banks: Quite a few central banks on the radar this wk including the ECB, RBA & BoC.
  • Holidays: SW, FR, GER & NZ out on Mon, IT on Tues
  • US: Final PMIs, ISMs, ADP, Factory Orders, AHE, U/R & NFP
  • CH: Final Official PMIs mfg. 51.1e 50.8, serv. 53.5e 53.2p & China Caixin PMIs mfg. 49.6e 49.4, serv. 47.5e 44.4p
  • EZ: Final PMIs, regional jobs data, Retail Sales, ECM, GER Factory Orders  
  • JP: Capital Spending, Monetary Base, Household Spending, Leading Indicators
  • UK: Finals PMIs, M4 Supply, Mortgage Approvals, Construction PMI, Gfk Cons. Conf.
  • AU: AIG mfg. + construction Index, MI Inflation, Current Account, RBA, GDP Q/Q, Retail Sales
  • NZ: Building Consents, Overseas Trade, Milk Auction, ANZ Commodity Prices
  • CA: Mfg. PMI, BoC, Trade Balance, Jobs data, Ivey PMI

 

If You Have Not, Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…

  • May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks – again keep re-flagging this one, as there is a lot of shelf life in the themes discussed here

USDCNH touching on ATHs – all about +7.20 & Aussie could see massive reversal - & why unlike in Jan this year, its to Trump’s advantage to break up the trade deal with China

-

Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

Share
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Singapore

Saxo Markets
Most of our staff in Singapore are working from home to help limit the spread of the coronavirus. We remain at your service on the details below. Thank you for your understanding.

Contact Saxo

Products & pricing

Platforms & services

General

Across

Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you understand the risks.

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.