Asia Market Quick Take – September 15, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – September 15, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: US Consumer sentiment falls and UK GDP stalls
• Equities: Nasdaq 100 hits new highs; Warner brothers take 2 day gain to 50%.
• FX: USD stable; CAD deficit up, CNH falls on tariff concerns
• Commodities: Gold near record after four straight weekly gains
• Fixed income: Treasury yields rose while bunds and gilts underperformed

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US consumer sentiment fell to 55.4 in September 2025 from 58.2 in August, below the expected 58. This second monthly drop is the lowest since May, impacting mainly lower- and middle-income households. Although durable goods buying improved, concerns over business conditions, jobs, and inflation grew. Personal finance views dropped 8%, with 60% citing tariffs as a major issue.
• US and Chinese officials began trade talks in Madrid, discussing strained relations, TikTok's divestiture deadline, and potential tariffs on Chinese goods over Beijing's Russian oil purchases. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and negotiator Li Chenggang.
• Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating to A+ from AA-, citing political turmoil and rising debt. This follows Prime Minister François Bayrou's resignation after losing a confidence vote on an austerity budget. Sébastien Lecornu was appointed to form a new government.
• UK economy stalled in July 2025 after June's 0.4% growth, as predicted. Services edged up 0.1%, while construction rose 0.2%, but production fell 0.9% with manufacturing down 1.3%. Over three months to July, GDP rose 0.2%, weighed by a production decline. Annual GDP growth was stable at 1.4%, slightly below the 1.5% forecast.
• China's Commerce Ministry launched an antidumping investigation into US analogue chips and an anti-discrimination investigation into US actions in the integrated circuit sector.

Equities: 

• US - S&P 500 closed flat, Dow fell 273 points, while Nasdaq 100 hit new highs. Soft jobs data and cooling inflation fuelled bets on a Fed rate cut next week. Nasdaq gained 0.4%, driven by Tesla (+7.4%) and Microsoft (+1.7%) after avoiding an EU antitrust fine, lifting tech and consumer discretionary sectors. Materials and health care lagged. Markets largely expect a 25 bps cut at the Sept. 17 Fed meeting, with a slim chance of 50 bps. Warner Brothers gained a further 16% on Paramount bid speculation while Gemini Space Station gained 14% on its first trading day, closing at $32.
• EU - European stocks ended slightly lower Friday: STOXX 50 closed flat at 5,387, STOXX 600 slipped 0.1% to 555, dragged by pharma. Caution prevailed ahead of Fitch’s review of France’s credit rating amid political instability and deficit concerns. Pharma stocks fell after Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis (-3%), pulling Roche, AstraZeneca, and GSK down over 1%. ECB signaled its easing cycle is done, with Lagarde saying the bank is in a “good place” and growth risks are more balanced. Weekly gains: STOXX 50 +1.3%, STOXX 600 +1%.
• HK - Hang Seng jumped 1.2% to 26,387 Friday, its sixth straight gain and highest since Aug 2021. The index surged 3.8% for the week, best since March, on Fed rate-cut bets and Wall Street highs. Sentiment was lifted by news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet China’s VP He Lifeng in Madrid next week for trade talks. Gains were capped by caution ahead of China’s August activity data. Tech led on AI optimism; Alibaba and Baidu rallied after unveiling in-house AI chips. Other top movers: China Hongqiao (+6.1%), Akeso (+6.0%), Zhaojin Mining (+4.3%).