Details Cookies
United Kingdom
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Market Quick Take - June 30, 2020 Market Quick Take - June 30, 2020 Market Quick Take - June 30, 2020

Market Quick Take - June 30, 2020

Macro 3 minutes to read
Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Summary:  Equity markets in the US rebounded yesterday after having a look at pivotal levels to the downside, seemingly unperturbed by reversals of opening up measures in some Covid19 hot spots in the US. Today is the last day of a rather volatile quarter for equities as we look forward to US jobs data, unusually set for release on Thursday due to a holiday weekend.

What is our trading focus?

  • US500.I (S&P 500 Index) and USNAS100.I (NASDAQ 100 Index) – the key pivot levels in both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 both held yesterday and the major indices closed on a strong note, once again preventing two consecutive days of downside. With yesterday’s action, the downside support around 3,000 in the S&P 500 has been underlined once again, while for the Nasdaq 100, that index once more avoided a close below the 21-day moving average since April. That technical indicator has now moved up to 9,891.

  • XAUUSD (Spot Gold) - Gold remains poised near the highs of the cycles, looking for direction either from new policy measures aimed to force inflation higher or negative real rates more negative or some more participation from the US dollar and other commodities, especially silver. The break higher looks intact as long as the daily closes remain north of 1,745-1,750.

  • FB:xnas (Facebook) - shares recovered from Friday’s enormous 8% sell-off on concerns of an advertiser exodus, despite a growing list of companies announcing reductions or boycotts of spending on the platform. Plenty of volatility potential for this name if it is able to turn the tide with new measures aimed at allaying advertiser concerns or not if the drumbeat of negative news for the company continues. In our equity note from yesterday we expressed the view that shareholders should not be worried about the boycott.

  • EURUSD – risk sentiment rebounded strongly yesterday, but the US dollar was not particularly impacted negatively, and EURUSD remains rather heavy in the recent range, with speculative positioning rather long of the pair – interested to see how the pair behaves in the 1.1161-1.1200 zone in coming sessions through the end of this week as the recent rally off the 1.0800 area is getting rather stale – a new rally and close above 1.1400 needed to get the bulls on track again.

  • GBPUSD – sterling broke down further yesterday as Brexit talks resume, and there are no real chart points lower until the sub-1.2100 lows in GBPUSD as EURGBP also traded to new recent highs well above 0.9100. A strong rally in GBPUSD on some new catalyst back toward 1.2500 needed to offer any sense of a bullish reversal.

  • USDRUB - ruble traders are wary of the accusations from US intelligence services of Russian bounties on US military troops discussed below, which could eventually bring new negative attention on Russia in the form of trade or other sanctions. A big resistance level in USDRUB around 70.50.

What is going on?

  • The COVID-19 case count in the US continues to accelerate with Houston ICU full of younger patients and reversal in places of opening up measures, for example in Arizona, where bars and pools have been shut. The new Covid19 surge is started among young people in the US who resumed normal activity too quickly, but is now reaching more vulnerable populations in Florida.

  • The new Hong Kong security law aimed at cracking down on protests has been approved by the main Chinese legislative body, bringing fears of a deterioration of Hong Kong’s autonomy and trade relationships globally, particularly with the US.

  • US intelligence services accuse Russia of offering bounties to Taliban for killing US troops, with accusations in the US that the Trump White House was aware of the reports in February or even earlier. The Democratic opposition is seizing on this news and rehashing the theme of Trump’s softness on Putin for political gains ahead of the election.

What we are watching next?

  • US Fed Chair Powell and US Secretary Mnuchin to testify – to testify before the US House Financial Services Committee. There will likely be strong appeals for funding of state and local governments from both the Fed and Treasury, while Mnuchin could face tough questioning on oversight of where funds have gone in the crisis response.

  • End of quarter shenanigans? It is difficult to find evidence that end-of-quarter rebalancing drives significant volatility, but the latest quarter has brought an enormous move in equity markets relative to bond markets, so if there is any such phenomenon, it could drive flows over through the end of the month and quarter today.

  • US employment numbers and sentiment – the strong showing in the US May Nonfarm Payrolls change data was cause for cheer last month and the June tallies are set for release this Thursday due to a Friday holiday for US Independence Day. The speed of declines of US initial jobless claims and continuing claims continues to be in the spotlight this week, as well as the June payrolls change data as the US faces a growing risk of slowing down the resumption of economic activity due to the latest acceleration in Covid19 numbers.

Economic Calendar Highlights (times GMT)

  • 0900 – Euro Zone Jun. Flash CPI Estimate
  • 1230 – Canada Apr. GDP
  • 1300 – US S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index
  • 1345 – US Jun. Chicago PMI
  • 1400 – US Jun. Consumer Confidence
  • 1500 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to Speak
  • 1630 – US Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to speak
  • 2350 – Japan Q2 Tankan Survey
  • 0145 – China Jun. Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:

Apple Sportify Soundcloud Stitcher


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.