Market Quick Take – 1 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Wall Street ended November higher on Fed-cut hopes, Europe edged up, while Hong Kong slipped as property names weighed
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, short-dated vols lower, calmer backdrop
• Digital assets: DeFi exploit at Yearn’s yETH pool sparks fresh crypto risk-off
• Fixed Income: Japanese bond yields rise on Ueda rate hike comments
• Currencies: Rate hike hint sends Yen higher against the dollar
• Commodities: Silver and copper surge to record on tight supply outlook
• Macro events: US Nov ISM Manufacturing.

Macro headlines

• President Trump said he has decided on the next Fed chair, while White House economic adviser Hassett noted he would gladly accept if chosen.
• President Trump declared the cancellation of executive orders signed by former President Biden using an autopen, claiming about 92% were signed this way and are now void. Trump alleged Biden's lack of involvement in the autopen process and threatened perjury charges if Biden denies it.
• China’s official Manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction at 49.2 (in line with expectations), while Non-Manufacturing PMI missed forecasts at 49.5 (vs. 50.0 expected).
• The yen strengthened and the 2-year JGB yield rose to its highest since 2008 after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave the clearest hint yet of a rate hike on 19 December. He said he bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate” by examining the economy, inflation and financial markets at home and abroad.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0930 – UK Oct Mortgage Approvals & Money Supply
1445 – US Nov S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
1500 – US Nov ISM Manufacturing

Earnings events

• Tuesday: CrowdStrike Holdings, Marvell
• Wednesday: Salesforce Inc, Dollar Tree
• Thursday: Kroger, Hewlett-Packard, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US indices finished the shortened post-Thanksgiving session higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq 0.8%, and Dow 0.6% as markets priced roughly 80–85% odds of an early Fed rate cut. Communication services led while healthcare lagged after Eli Lilly fell 2.6% and cooled from its November surge. Tech was more mixed, with Microsoft up 1.3%, Amazon 1.8%, Meta 2.3%, Broadcom 1.4% and Tesla 0.8%, while Nvidia slipped 1.8% and Alphabet was flat. A brief CME futures outage added some noise, while Intel jumped 10.0% on optimism it could win Apple’s lower-end M-series chip orders, keeping focus on chip leadership and AI supply chains into December.
• Europe: European equities inched higher, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both up 0.3% to 577 as softer inflation data in Italy and France reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank will stay on hold. Tech names such as ASML, SAP, Infineon and Prosus gained around 0.7–1.5%, while consumer and auto groups including LVMH, Volkswagen and Stellantis added roughly 1.3–2.0%. Germany’s reading came in a bit hotter, and the Eurozone blue-chip index still slipped 0.6% in November, showing some fatigue after the autumn rally. Investors now watch incoming activity data and the next ECB meeting for clearer timing on potential rate cuts next year.
• Asia: Hong Kong stocks eased after a strong run, with the Hang Seng down 0.3% to 25,859 as property and financial names dragged. Sentiment cooled ahead of China’s November purchasing managers’ indices and amid some caution as mainland benchmarks trade near multi-year highs on artificial-intelligence optimism. Sportswear groups Anta and Li Ning slipped 0.6% and 1.4% respectively after reports they had shown interest in acquiring Puma, while Alibaba Health, Nongfu Spring and China Overseas Land fell around 2.7–3.4%. For November overall the index was broadly flat despite a 2.5% weekly gain, and attention now shifts to December’s key policy meeting in Beijing and any fresh support signals.

Volatility

• Volatility is easing further after last week’s jump, with VIX back in the mid-teens and short-dated measures (VIX1D, VIX9D) drifting lower, signalling a calmer start to December despite ongoing political and central-bank uncertainty. Index options still point to a contained trading range: based on the at-the-money weekly strangle, the SPX options market prices an expected move of about ±81 points (±1.2%) into Friday’s 5 December expiry, roughly a 6,770–6,930 range around current levels.
• This week’s main volatility catalysts are the US and global manufacturing PMIs today, followed by euro area inflation, Fed Chair Powell’s speech, US labour data (JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims) and Friday’s PCE inflation numbers, all feeding expectations for a December rate cut.
• Macro skew indicator: today’s SPX weekly chain and the SKEW index near 143 point to a mild downside bias, with puts priced slightly richer than calls, suggesting investors are staying in equities but still paying up for protection.

Digital Assets

• Crypto opens December under pressure after a security incident at DeFi platform Yearn Finance’s yETH pool triggered a rush out of riskier tokens and unsettled broader sentiment. Bitcoin trades in the mid-$80k area this morning, down about 5% over the past 24 hours, while ether is off roughly 6% around $2,800; major alt-coins such as Solana, XRP, Cardano, Polygon and Dogecoin are lower by 6–8%, highlighting how sensitive the space remains to confidence shocks and leverage.
• Spot ETFs tell a more nuanced story: BlackRock’s IBIT ended Friday with a NAV around $51.7 and remains a key gateway for institutional exposure despite several weeks of net outflows across the bitcoin ETF complex in November. The ETHA Ethereum trust has been more resilient, with NAV near $23 after a choppy month in which Ethereum lagged bitcoin but saw a small late-month recovery.
• Listed crypto-exposed equities such as Coinbase and selected miners (CleanSpark, Riot, Cipher) have bounced from recent lows, helped by JP Morgan upgrades for some miners, but remain tightly linked to bitcoin’s path.

Fixed Income

• Japanese government bond yields rose after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda opened the door wide open for a 19 December rate hike after making comments that were more hawkish than usual. 2-year yields rose to a 2008 high at 1.025%, while the benchmark 10-year yield trades up 6 bp to 1.87%, a 17-year high.
• Treasuries traded lower at the start of the week with yields edging higher after hitting a two-week low on Friday after a CME outage delayed trading and kept price action muted.
• The Fed blackout period ahead of the 10 December FOMC meeting has now begun with a 25 bp rate cut almost fully priced in. US 10-year trades up 3 bp to 4.04% from a 3.96% low on Friday, with the 2-year tenor holding steady around 3.5%.

Commodities

• Precious and industrial metals remain in focus, with silver and platinum extending their strong run amid persistent supply tightness and firm investor demand for hard assets. A combination of Fed rate-cut expectations, currency debasement concerns, fiscal debt anxiety and sticky inflation continues to underpin the sector. Silver added to Friday’s near-6% surge by setting a fresh record high of USD 57.86 in Asian trading. Year-to-date returns now stand at more than 94% for silver, 90% for platinum and 60% for gold. The relative strength of silver has pushed the gold–silver ratio towards 73, a level that has twice acted as support since 2021.
• Oil prices edged higher after OPEC+ confirmed group-wide output levels will remain unchanged for Q1 2026, while traders assessed the implications of President Donald Trump’s recent comments and threats against Venezuela.
• Copper also reached a new record on the LME as fears of a developing supply crunch intensified, exacerbated by a rush to move metal into the U.S. that has tightened availability elsewhere. Miners, smelters and traders meeting in Shanghai flagged rising operational disruptions globally, helping drive LME copper to USD 11,294—a year-to-date gain of almost 30%.

Currencies

• The dollar bounced from a two-week low, with the DXY hovering around 99.5, as markets price in a rising probability of Fed rate cuts and after Trump said he had decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver rate cuts.
• The yen nudged higher with the USDJPY falling to a two-week low of 155.45 following Ueda’s remarks. The yen reached 157.89 per dollar last month, the lowest level since January, adding to concerns over the prospects of the weak currency raising import costs and boosting inflationary forces weighing on households.

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