Chief Investment Officer
Summary: We see a closer than expected race for the US presidential election which take place next week. Here we provide our long-term analysis, together with the recent headlines.
Our long term analysis: Close to zero impact next four years from who becomes President. Both Biden and Trump have zero willingness or ability to “heal” the US. The 2022 midterm election is already key. The Democratic young-and-left rising fast as voice, while MAGA movement remains in some form after a Trump loss. Either way, it all adds up to more social unrest. I see Biden as a Carter-like President. Full of good intentions after the disaster of President Nixon’s Watergate and the first oil crisis. But external factors (US losing 5G – AI race) will leave US in open discussion on finding its true values and roots.
Headlines Monday October 26th
Trading
We are going into the election with this portfolio (not advisory – only a model-based allocation)
We believe in hedging overall risk. We are long risk through equities, hedged with volatility, inflation and commodities. We have added crypto as per below.
The real digital revolution... A true hedge on any new US President? We think so...
This is portfolio allocation of 5% into long-term 100Y portfolio
We recommend 5% exposure to crypto through ETN is our base 100Y portfolio supported by recent break out to upside in pricing.
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