Macro Digest: US election - T minus 8 days
Chief Economist & CIO
Summary: We see a closer than expected race for the US presidential election which take place next week. Here we provide our long-term analysis, together with the recent headlines.
Our long term analysis: Close to zero impact next four years from who becomes President. Both Biden and Trump have zero willingness or ability to “heal” the US. The 2022 midterm election is already key. The Democratic young-and-left rising fast as voice, while MAGA movement remains in some form after a Trump loss. Either way, it all adds up to more social unrest. I see Biden as a Carter-like President. Full of good intentions after the disaster of President Nixon’s Watergate and the first oil crisis. But external factors (US losing 5G – AI race) will leave US in open discussion on finding its true values and roots.
Headlines Monday October 26th
- Clean-sweep odds have slipped to 50-50 now.
- High level of mail votes could see Trump lead on the night, then lose as mail votes comes in – biggest risk if he moves the declare fraudulence.
- “US Stimulus deal” remains elusive – seems it’s all part of partisan politics at election time – neither side wants to give the other side a win, but has to be seen as trying to act.
- SAP results indicate “earnings recession” in big Europe…
- 8 days to election night – this is going to be massive week in politics, more than in economics…
- Big week for major tech.
- US voters are angry, v. angry (link).
- The seven political state of Wisconsin (link).
- Ms Clinton sees clear victory – hmm she has not won a single election except the US Senate seat in New York given to her… (link).
- China Communist Party plenum kick off in Beijing. This is the event this week. China impulse on credit + growth is 30-40% (right now China only G-10 with tight monetary conditions). Look for: shift from low-cost manufacturing to semiconductors, renewable energy, medicine and space. The key though is the de facto inclusion of President Xi’s: Dual-circulation strategy which is really short for – We don’t want to be dependent on anybody but ourselves.
We are going into the election with this portfolio (not advisory – only a model-based allocation)
- Equity: 35%
- Fixed Income: 27%
- Commodity 10%
- Inflation 10%
- Volatility 3%
- Gold 10 %
- Crypto 5%
We believe in hedging overall risk. We are long risk through equities, hedged with volatility, inflation and commodities. We have added crypto as per below.
The real digital revolution... A true hedge on any new US President? We think so...
- Buy BITCOIN_XBTE @ 527.00
- Stop @ 390.00
This is portfolio allocation of 5% into long-term 100Y portfolio
- Millennials hold higher share of crypto than average portfolios
- Future “solutions” on tax, capital controls, less monopoly is based on digital solutions
- Increased anti-establishment is rising now most prolific with Youth divided.
- We think the biggest “social deficit” is that of the Youth. Denied access to credit(housing) will lead to disintermediation from non-traditional sources.
We recommend 5% exposure to crypto through ETN is our base 100Y portfolio supported by recent break out to upside in pricing.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.