Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Macro Digest: FOMC marginal change is big deal
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Fed Minutes shows conditions in place to taper.
Saxo view: Fed still looks at when to start, but there is majority if not consensus that the QE needs to end by H2-2022. This is an extension of Althea argument early in the summer: Too much liquidity means Fed needs to act faster and earlier relative to normal conditions. We see a number of Fed governors confirming this path, and this is bad news for convexity and rate sensitive stocks as the tail-wind will disappear faster. Of course, there is still overall the issue that growth and overall financial conditions is deteriorating in real economy.
Market: US stocks markets has “broken down” on charts, fixed income is starting to price “stag-flation light”. (Low growth and medium term inflation) which mean FI for now remains unchanged. (Consensus on inflation remains that its “temporary”...)
Action: Seasonality in VIX, charts, and FOMC marginal change means Volatility should be bid. Looks to hedge through buying of puts or outright buying volatility ETF (VIXM US Equity or LVO IM Equity could be used).
As per my latest macro presentation – the gap between Fed “official” view on inflation and their communicated view... now closing, as predicted by their DOTS below:
Seasonality in VIX:
A few charts…
- NAS – Momentum broken down
- WTI – Oil – proxy for global growth broken down
- Copper – proxy for global growth broken down
- AUDJPY – The ultimate RISK indicator – broken down hard… (AUD is small open economy with big commodity + China exposure) – JPY is the world largest saving base (safety)
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