Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: The latest print on the US economy delivered a surprisingly strong bounce in GDP. However, dig a little deeper and you'll find that the future isn't as rosy as one would think.
Yesterday’s US session was quite surprising with the publication of a stronger Q4 GDP than forecast by the consensus. It reached 2.6% in Q4 versus the 2.2% that was expected, slowing from 3.4% in Q3. It is rather a good print, but it certainly also confirms that the economic slowdown is only starting. Digging into data, non-residential investment held up quite well and equipment investment surged to 6.7%. As widely expected, the shutdown has a limited macroeconomic impact (sliced just 0.1% from quarterly GDP).
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