Macro Brief: Plenty of US data but no paradigm shift
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: The latest print on the US economy delivered a surprisingly strong bounce in GDP. However, dig a little deeper and you'll find that the future isn't as rosy as one would think.
Yesterday’s US session was quite surprising with the publication of a stronger Q4 GDP than forecast by the consensus. It reached 2.6% in Q4 versus the 2.2% that was expected, slowing from 3.4% in Q3. It is rather a good print, but it certainly also confirms that the economic slowdown is only starting. Digging into data, non-residential investment held up quite well and equipment investment surged to 6.7%. As widely expected, the shutdown has a limited macroeconomic impact (sliced just 0.1% from quarterly GDP).
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (Federal Open Market Committee non-voter) is due to speak in Washington, but don't expect anything market-moving in his speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy,
08:15-09:00 – Eurozone Feb. Manufacturing PMI
08:55 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change
09:30 – UK Jan. Mortgage Approvals
09:30 – UK Feb. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 – Eurozone Feb. CPI Estimate
10:30 – US Dec. PCE Inflation
13:00 – US Feb. ISM Manufacturing
15.00 – US Feb. University of Michigan Sentiment