Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Summary: The US dollar chopped back and forth last week and starts the week already threatening to break lower, which it may succeed in doing as long as the key US macro data fails to push back against the weak US dollar narrative. Most pivotal will be the May US jobs report on Friday.
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Latest market moves:
The US dollar has sold off as the week gets underway, with the latest sense that US-China relations are souring after Trump claimed that China is violating the terms of their agreement and China doing likewise with some stern language out overnight on US behavior. The ongoing embargo on rare earth metals exports may be the source of concern from the US side. As well, Trump doubled the steel- and aluminum tariffs to 50%, a move that might simply be a petulant response to a journalist making him aware of the “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out, an expression coined by an FT reporter that has circulated everywhere since) late last week, which the president found extremely offensive. Everything moving back in the direction of trade- and geopolitical tensions has risk sentiment stumbling into the new month and as noted, the USD on the defensive.
Chart: EURUSD
After a false break higher early last week, EURUSD sold off mid-week, accelerated by a story that a US court ruled against some of Trump’s executive orders on tariffs. The strong rebound and now follow through higher to even breaking above resistance this morning is dramatically heating up the bullish case here, and where we land by Friday on the close could set us up for the next significant leg higher in EURUSD, possibly even challenging 1.2000. The ECB on Thursday may only prove a mild distraction relative to the stream of US data and overall pressure on the dollar this week.
Big bad bill for the US dollar?
Many are noting something in the House version of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that has been there all along, but is getting more coverage now: section 899. This section of the bill threatens foreign actors that implement tax policies that are seen as “unfair” or “discriminatory” and leaves wide room for interpretation, but is basically read as providing the means to tax foreign capital investing in any US assets if countries, for example, move against US info-tech giants with digital services taxes for example (particularly a concern for the EU due to its Digital Services Act). But the bill could even result in taxes on, for example, US treasury coupon payments on foreign holders of US treasuring, including official ones and those of sovereign wealth funds that have traditionally escaped taxation. This potential power play against foreign holdings of US-based assets could eventually slow interest in recycling surpluses into US capital markets, obviously USD-negative in flow terms on major players looking for alternatives to US assets.
Looking ahead
This is the first week of the month, with all of the usual key US data, which could serve to brake or accelerate US dollar weakness, particularly the jobs report on Friday. A quick rundown of the key event risks for the week ahead:
FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
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The US bearish trend intensifying here, and the Chinese renminbi tilting in the US dollar’s direction as usual, with AUD likely underperforming for the same reason (it’s exposure to China, but also its awkward status as a defense ally of the US when US and China tensions are heating up).
Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. I wouldn’t read anything into the EURCAD trend – it is throwing off false signals in a range. Elsewhere, a bit more drama potential in key GBP pairs, where the EURGBP situation could get interesting on a further rally (new uptrend?) and the GBPJPY status could eventually prove interesting as well after the upside was rejected last week, though more GBP selling needed in both pairs first.