Macro: It’s all about elections and keeping status quo
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: The latest print on the US economy delivered a surprisingly strong bounce in GDP. However, dig a little deeper and you'll find that the future isn't as rosy as one would think.
Yesterday’s US session was quite surprising with the publication of a stronger Q4 GDP than forecast by the consensus. It reached 2.6% in Q4 versus the 2.2% that was expected, slowing from 3.4% in Q3. It is rather a good print, but it certainly also confirms that the economic slowdown is only starting. Digging into data, non-residential investment held up quite well and equipment investment surged to 6.7%. As widely expected, the shutdown has a limited macroeconomic impact (sliced just 0.1% from quarterly GDP).