Macro Brief: Plenty of US data but no paradigm shift
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: The latest print on the US economy delivered a surprisingly strong bounce in GDP. However, dig a little deeper and you'll find that the future isn't as rosy as one would think.
Yesterday’s US session was quite surprising with the publication of a stronger Q4 GDP than forecast by the consensus. It reached 2.6% in Q4 versus the 2.2% that was expected, slowing from 3.4% in Q3. It is rather a good print, but it certainly also confirms that the economic slowdown is only starting. Digging into data, non-residential investment held up quite well and equipment investment surged to 6.7%. As widely expected, the shutdown has a limited macroeconomic impact (sliced just 0.1% from quarterly GDP).
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (Federal Open Market Committee non-voter) is due to speak in Washington, but don't expect anything market-moving in his speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy,
08:15-09:00 – Eurozone Feb. Manufacturing PMI
08:55 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change
09:30 – UK Jan. Mortgage Approvals
09:30 – UK Feb. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 – Eurozone Feb. CPI Estimate
10:30 – US Dec. PCE Inflation
13:00 – US Feb. ISM Manufacturing
15.00 – US Feb. University of Michigan Sentiment
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.