Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
This week, U.S. equity benchmarks again tested all-time highs while gold takes a breather on the back of a stronger dollar. The FOMC rate decision was the main event but there was a sprinkling of high-profile stock specific news too (see below). On top of that, Nvidia was in the crosshairs of the Chinese watchdog, Alphabet reached $3 trillion market cap, Palantir signed a $1.5b AI deal with the UK military, the BoE held policy rates steady, and Trump received a royal reception in the UK! More below on this week’s key stories. Novo off the bottom
Fed cut – one not so mysterious dissenter
The Fed cut rates 25bps on Wednesday as expected, citing a shift in risk balance. Eleven voters supported the move while new Governor Miran favoured 50bps. The greenback has rallied since the decision, unwinding risks of the larger cut. Dot plot median projections show 2 more cuts in 2025.
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Nvidia invests in Intel
Intel shares jumped as much as 30% on Thursday (closed +23%) after it was announced Nvidia will buy a $5b stake in the company with plans to co-design chips. The deal is not just financial support but also a significant and strategic AI tie-up.
Nvidia Intel deal What it means for the AI ecosystem | Saxo
Novo Nordisk jumped 7% on Thursday after late-stage trial results for its once-daily obesity pill showed “significant” weight reduction and tolerability in line with its blockbuster Wegovy injection.
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TikTok’s U.S. deal
On Monday, a framework agreement was released by senior US and Chinese officials outlining how TikTok’s U.S. operations would work under new U.S. ownership. The consortium acquiring the U.S. stake will include Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz and Silver Lake Management.
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The front end of the next week is a bit light as far as economic data goes. Come Thursday we have GDP, jobless claims, durable good, and existing home sales data from the U.S. And Friday has Eurozone inflation expectations, Japan CPI numbers, and the August PCE index for the U.S. – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Aside from that there are various speakers dotted at different conferences globally. And for earnings, we have the likes of Micron Technology on Tuesday evening, and Costco after the bell on Thursday.