Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: In today’s ‘Macro Chartmania’, we give an update on the British economy. A few months ago, we warned the UK economy is one of the developed countries most likely to enter into a recession. There is no debate about it anymore. Last week, the Bank of England updated its macroeconomic forecasts for the years until 2025. These are frightening. The United Kingdom is projected to enter into a recession in Q4 2022. This could last five quarters and cause GDP to fall about 2.1 % - as deep as the recession of the early 1990s. But this is not the worst. Very often, the economy rebounds quite sharply after a recession. This is unlikely to happen this time. The slump will last. The BoE sees GDP still 1.75 % below today’s levels in mid-2025.
Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania composed of more than 100 charts to track the latest macroeconomic and market developments. All the data are collected from Macrobond and updated each week.
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