Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank sees 75% chance of Brexit before January 31st
Someone has to do it……the Brexit update ….!!!
Today, Monday will see big maneuvering by both sides to set the agenda in the Commons today. The Speaker John Bercow will rule on whether Government can bring forward a “meaningful vote” on its withdrawal agreement (source: Evening Standard). The potential outcomes excellently diagrammed by The Guardian below.
Furthermore judges are sitting and deciding if the unsigned letter asking for extension is in violation of the Benn act. “The Prime minister sent a total of three letters: An unsigned photocopy of the request he was obliged to send under the Benn act, an explanatory letter from the the UK ambassador to the EU and a personal letter explaining why Downing Street did not want an extension” – (Source: The Guardian)
The short-version including links:
After initial sell-off into Asian open GBPUSD has slowly been moving higher…1.2930 in time of writing… 1.2980 old high. Downing streets claims to have the votes to pass the Withdrawal agreement if given straight vote Monday. Labour is confident Speaker Bercow will stop this vote setting up Tuesday for 2nd reading of Withdrawal bill.
Unlikely we will have resolution in next 24 hours on this vote, the most likely remains a long week including next weekend being used to prepare October 31st exit from EU.
Probabilities according to Saxo:
The momentum right now is to get deal done, but it’s a very fluid situation which we will keep updating…
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)