Market Quick Take - Nasdaq falls into correction as Fed holds and Iran strikes resume - 30 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Fed keeps rate unchanged, with three hawkish dissenters. US long-dated treasury yields jump in reaction.
• Equities: Global equities weakened as the Federal Reserve unsettled Wall Street, Europe digested earnings, and Asia grappled with another semiconductor-led selloff
• Volatility: Fed hold and fresh Iran strikes push the Nasdaq into correction as vol jumps.
• Digital Assets: Crypto spot holds steady while miners are hammered and Morgan Stanley launches altcoin ETPs.
• Commodities: Gold choppy post-FOMC, ends back lower. Crude oil maintains recent rally on fresh US-Iran hostilities and on concerns of wider conflict.
• Fixed Income: US yield curve steepens post-FOMC, US 30-year yield hits 19-year high
• Currencies: US dollar weaker post-FOMC, particularly against the euro.

Macro

• The Fed kept its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting in July 2026, with three voters dissenting in favour of a hike, leaving a September increase possible, if seen less likely than before the decision. The Fed reported solid growth, strong productivity and investment, stable unemployment, and inflation still above the 2% target, and reaffirmed its commitment to price stability. Kevin Warsh offered little guidance but said the Fed “will not hesitate to act” and that higher rates “could well be part of the solution” to curb excessive inflation. Long US treasury yields jumped back to the cycle highs as the Fed was seen less determined to get ahead of inflation concerns.
• US–Iran fighting threatened global energy supplies after an attack on US forces in Jordan prompted a strong response vow from President Trump. Talks stalled over Tehran’s insistence on control of the Strait of Hormuz, while the conflict spread to the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthis threatened a Saudi blockade and Riyadh joined US strikes on Iran-linked targets in Iraq.
• The 30-year fixed US mortgage rate rose 7 bps to 6.76% in the week ending July 24, 2026, the highest since August 2025, amid higher Treasury yields (including a 19-year high in the benchmark US 30-year treasury yield) and persistent inflation fears tied partly to Middle East tensions. Rates are up about 70 bps since late February, reinforcing “higher for longer” Fed expectations. Higher costs are cooling housing demand: total applications fell 6.4%, with purchases down 3.6% and refinancings down 9.9%.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0900 – Eurozone Jul. Consumer, Industrial and other confidence surveys
• 1100 – Bank of England announcement
• 1200 – Germany Jul. Flash CPI
• 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1230 – US Q2 GDP Estimate
• 1230 – US Jun PCE Inflation
• 2330 – Japan Jul. Tokyo CPI
• 0230-0400: Bank of Japan decision

Earnings events

• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Prada
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Moderna, Kioxia

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow Jones lost 2.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.1%, marking its worst Federal Reserve decision day since December 2024 and leaving the technology-heavy index in correction territory. Investors reacted cautiously as the Fed offered little support for hopes of imminent rate cuts, while semiconductor shares remained under pressure. Nvidia fell 3.6% as chipmakers extended their recent weakness. After the close, Microsoft climbed around 3% after Azure cloud revenue comfortably beat expectations, while Meta slipped on softer-than-expected revenue guidance. Qualcomm also fell on cautious guidance linked to memory supply constraints, while Lam Research gained after strong results and an upbeat outlook. Markets now turn their attention to Apple and Amazon earnings and the next round of US economic data.
• Europe: European markets ended mixed as investors balanced a busy earnings day against the weaker tone from Wall Street. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3%, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.7%, while Germany's DAX was broadly unchanged. The FTSE 100 outperformed, rising 0.3% and briefly touching a fresh intraday record, helped by gains in Shell after stronger earnings and Sage after upbeat results. Luxury stocks moved sharply in opposite directions, with Hermes falling 11% on weaker leather goods sales while Kering surged nearly 17% after encouraging Gucci performance. Semiconductor equipment also remained under pressure as ASM International and Infineon declined on cautious industry expectations. Investors now look ahead to inflation data and further corporate earnings to gauge whether Europe's recent resilience can continue.
• Asia: Asian markets traded unevenly on Thursday as the US semiconductor selloff rippled across the region, although some markets recovered from early losses. South Korea's Kospi swung between gains and losses after authorities tightened restrictions on leveraged exchange-traded funds following Wednesday's sharp rally and reversal. Samsung Electronics traded higher after reporting earnings, although the initial market reaction remained volatile, echoing the pattern seen after SK Hynix's results earlier this week. Japan's Nikkei erased early losses as gains in Hitachi and Nintendo offset chip-sector weakness, supported by optimism after Advantest raised its full-year outlook. Chinese equities opened mixed after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose overnight, with investors continuing to weigh technology sentiment against signs of improving domestic support. The focus now shifts to whether upcoming earnings can stabilise confidence across the region.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 20.66 | VIX FUTURES: 20.05 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (139.55) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Wednesday's Fed hold and a fresh Iran-linked strike kept oil elevated as the Nasdaq 100 slid 2.1% into a technical correction and the S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 7,316. Cash VIX jumped 13.5% to 20.66 while VIX1D surged 23.3% to 19.45 ahead of Thursday's Apple and Amazon results.
• The curve held its contango through VIX3M 21.50 and VIX1Y 24.09; SKEW eased to 139.55 and MOVE to 74.18, while OVX at 67.59 kept oil vol over three times the VIX. SPXW prices a 72-point move today, 100 into Friday, with Apple and Amazon earnings the catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,640 +0.6% | ETHEREUM ~1,889 +0.5% | IBIT 36.14 -1.71% | ETHA 14.49 -1.50% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Digital assets held broadly steady overnight even as the tech-led selloff hammered crypto-linked equities. Miners bore the brunt of Wednesday's Nasdaq correction, with Riot down 14.1%, Iren 13.6%, Cifr 13.4%, Mara 11.7% and Clsk 10.9%; Coinbase fell 4.65% and MicroStrategy 2.94% as risk appetite narrowed ahead of the Fed.
• Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched Ethereum and Solana exchange-traded products on NYSE Arca, charging a 0.14% expense ratio and passing all staking rewards through to investors, extending its bitcoin ETP franchise into altcoins. See Saxo's pricing overview for the costs and applicable charges on IBIT and ETHA.

Commodities

• Crude oil maintained and slightly extended recent gains on the renewal of hostilities in the US-Iran war. After the US retaliated against Iran’s latest actions with a series of strikes early Thursday, October Brent traded up fifty cents from the Wednesday close at 88.60, while the September contract (expiring Friday) traded 91.40. September WTI traded just below USD 85 per barrel..
• Gold saw a choppy reception of the FOMC meeting, initially rallying nearly USD 100 after testing the USD 4,000 psychological support ahead of the decision and trading nearly to 4,120 before falling back to USD 4,035 per ounce in early Thursday trading. A weaker US dollar supports gold, but the rise in yields at the long end of the US treasury yield curve provide off-setting pressure.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The US treasury yield curve steepened after the Fed left its policy rate unchanged and expectations for a September rate hike dropped. The benchmark two-year treasury yield initially dropped by more than ten basis points in reaction to the Fed decision – to as low as 4.22%, but rebounded to close little changed from Tuesday’s close at 4.28%. At the longer end of the curve, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose back close to the cycle high, up about six basis points and trading near 4.70%, while the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield rose more than ten basis points, just pulling beyond the multi-year highs of 2023 at 5.23%, the highest level since 2007.
• US high yield bonds came under pressure yesterday, with the Bloomberg measure we track of the yield spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries widening seven basis points to 289 basis points, the widest since early April.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened in the wake of the Fed’s decision to not hike the policy rate. EURUSD was one of the biggest movers, jumping to as high as 1.1475 in early hours Thursday after trading below 1.1400 going into the decision late Wednesday. USDJPY trades near 163.50 early Thursday after trading near 163.90 before the Fed decision, less impacted by USD weakness as global long bond yields are under pressure. The latest Bank of Japan announcement will be forthcoming early Friday.
• The story circulated by Bloomberg that the Swiss National Bank intends to keep its policy rate at zero through the end of 2027 has continued to weigh on the Swiss franc,as EURCHF notched its highest level since January at 0.9345 Wednesday before pulling back slightly.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis