Asia Market Quick Take – 24 February, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 February, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: EU pauses trade talks with US and maintains current deal
• Equities: Software and payments stocks hit on AI disruption fears; IBM down 13%
• FX: Dollar rises; safe-haven JPY and CHF strong; US-Iran tensions grow
• Commodities: Gold rose for a fifth straight session to $5,230
• Fixed income: Treasuries rose on haven demand; the belly led gains

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

• The EU has paused trade talks with the US and will maintain the current deal for now. President Trump warned that any attempts to play games would lead to higher tariffs.  
• US manufactured goods orders dropped 0.7% to $617.5 billion in December 2025, close to expectations. Durable goods fell 1.4%, mainly due to lower transportation equipment orders. Increases were seen in computers, machinery, and metals. Nondurable goods orders were stable at $297.6 billion.
•  The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index increased to 0.2 in February 2026, showing stable conditions. Employment growth continued, workweeks lengthened, and wage growth surged. Manufacturers remain optimistic, with future production rising and business activity slightly dipping.
• Mexico’s economic activity index grew 3.3% year-on-year in December 2025, rebounding from a November dip, driven by an 11.4% surge in the primary sector. Services rose 3.2%, while the secondary sector expanded 2.4%. Monthly activity increased by 0.4%.

Equities:

• US - stocks slid Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 off 1.2%, and the Dow losing 1.6% as AI‑driven economic fears. Software and payments stocks sank on AI displacement concerns after a Citrini Research paper was publishedexploring downside risks if AI exceeded expectations, with AmEx falling 7.2% and ServiceNow dropping 3.33%. IBM plunged 13.1% after Anthropic launches AI tool to modernize COBOL code, one which used to require large consulting teams.Novo Nordisk fell 16% after its CagriSema clinical trial underperformed Eli lilly’s tirzepatide. Defensive names outperformed, while Nvidia ticked higher ahead of earnings.
• EU - STOXX 50 eased 0.3% to 6,115, while the STOXX 600 fell 0.5% to 630. SAP and Adyen dropped 3.4% and 5.4% as concerns grew that advancing AI tools could erode demand for software and payment services. Auto makers also weakened after the EU halted ratification of its US trade deal following Washington’s plan to restore tariffs under new emergency measures. BMW, Mercedes‑Benz and Volkswagen lost 1.5–3%. Enel outperformed, jumping 6.8% on its new investment plan and €1 billion buyback.
• HK - Hang Seng jumped 2.5%, to 27,082 on Monday, recovering from previous losses with strong sector gains. Optimism increased as traders expected reduced levies for China after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump's tariff measures. The index reached a two-week high, aided by Hong Kong's HKD 4 billion plan to compensate owners of homes lost in November's fire. Tech stocks rallied, driven by optimism in China’s AI sector, with SMIC up 4.6%, Alibaba Hong Kong up 3.6%, and Tencent up 3.5%. Gold-related shares also rose, with Zijin Gold Intl. (7.2%), Zhojin Mining (5.6%), and Laopu Gold (2.8%) gaining alongside bullion.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Workday, HP, Home Depot, UOB, Singapore Airlines
• Wednesday: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake, Paramount Skydance, Lowe’s, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, HSBC, OCBC, Fortescue
• Thursday: Baidu, Intuit, Block
• Friday: None

FX:

• USD edged up as traders assessed President Trump's tariff plans. Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF outperformed amid rising US-Iran tensions. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.1%.USDJPY fell 0.2% to 154.74 due to thin trading from a Japanese holiday. USDCHF decreased by 0.1% to 0.7745.
• USDCAD rose 0.2% to 1.3704. Wells Fargo advised selling CAD against EUR and USD due to economic exposure risks.
• EURUSD was stable at 1.1786, GBPUSD increased 0.1% to 1.3490, and AUDUSD slipped 0.3% to 0.7057.

Commodities:

• Oil steadied as US President Donald Trump said he favours a nuclear deal with Iran ahead of talks this week while warning of consequences if no agreement is reached; WTI traded near $66 a barrel after closing little changed on Monday, with Brent settling below $72; Trump said on social media it would be a “very bad day” for Iran if a deal isn’t struck and pushed back on reports the Pentagon was concerned an extended military campaign could be difficult.
• Gold rose for a fifth straight session as uncertainty over US trade policy and prolonged tensions with Iran drove demand for haven assets; bullion traded near $5,240 an ounce after a 7% four-session gain, with markets unsettled after President Donald Trump said he would raise a global import levy to 15% following the Supreme Court’s ruling against his so‑called reciprocal tariffs; platinum added 0.6% and palladium rose 0.5%.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries climbed on a haven bid as investors digested the White House’s plan for a 15% across-the-board import tariff; the belly led gains, leaving 2s5s30s on track for its biggest one-day drop in six months, supported by a large block flattener via 2- and 5-year note futures, while haven demand favoured Monday’s three-month bill auction and pushed nominal coupon yields lower.

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