Asia Market Quick Take – 21 April, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Iran to send delegation to US for talks before ceasefire ends
• Equities: Apple names John Ternus new CEO; Amazon+2.7% on $5B Anthropic investment
• FX: Dollar dips slightly as oil-driven NOK outperforms amid Middle East tensions
• Commodities: Brent drops up to 1.1% to $94.44 after Monday’s 5.6% gain
• Fixed income: NZ bonds drop as OIS fully price three RBNZ hikes by year-end

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
• New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, unchanged from December and above the 2.9% forecast. Housing and utilities led increases, driven by higher electricity and local rates, with food and transport also adding pressure. Inflation eased in clothing, communication, and recreation, while education was steady. Quarterly CPI rose 0.9%, up from 0.6% in Q4.
• Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up. Food inflation eased to 4% from 5.4%. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, driven by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices.
• Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.

Equities: 

• US - S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from its all-time high, halting a five-day advance amid uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. Apple shares slipped in late trading after the company announced that CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus on September 1, when Cook will transition to executive chairman. Amazon shares rose 2.7% in after-hours trading on news it will invest $5 billion in Anthropic, with the potential for up to $20 billion more based on commercial milestones. Alaska Air Group withdrew its guidance, citing uncertainty around the cost of fuel from the war in Iran, with shares falling 4.9% after the bell.
• EU - European equity markets declined as renewed Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8%, its biggest move since falling 1% on April 7. The DAX fell 1.2% to 24,417.80 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 closed down 0.6% at 10,609.08 in London. The EURO STOXX 50 Index ended 1.24% lower at 5,982.63, its largest one-day point and percentage decline since March 26. SAP contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 decline, decreasing 3.9%, while Rolls-Royce led the FTSE 100 lower with a 3.7% drop. Commerzbank formally rejected UniCredit's takeover bid, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying his government rejects hostile and aggressive tactics in Germany's banking industry.
• Asia - Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks and strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.4% to 6,219.09, with SK Hynix contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.4%. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. Equity-index futures pointed to gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia for Tuesday's session as signs Iran may join talks with the US fostered cautious optimism about progress in the Middle East ahead of the looming ceasefire deadline.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday - General Electric, 3M, United Health
• Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
• Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
• Friday - Procter & Gamble
• Sunday - Verizon

FX:

• USD edged slightly lower on Monday, while the NOK led G-10 gains as oil prices climbed after renewed Middle East tensions undermined hopes for US–Iran peace talks. Analysts say the dollar’s tight range reflects uncertainty around US economic and policy outlooks, while NOK is buoyed by its oil-linked status, strong external accounts, and relatively high yields. USDNOK down 0.7% to 9.3150.
• EUR gained 0.20% to $1.1790, snapping a two-session losing streak and posting its largest one-day percentage gain since April 14. Mizuho strategists expect the euro will probably head lower in the short-term as pricing for ECB interest-rate increases is unlikely to grow past the two hikes already reflected.
• USD gained 0.12% to 158.82 JPY, rising for the sixth time in the past eight sessions. Demand for bullish yen exposure through options remains firm, with one-week risk reversals in USDJPY rallying to 121 basis points, puts over calls, the most bearish sentiment for the greenback since March 9.

Commodities:

• Oil prices climbed following the latest rise of tensions between the United States and Iran, though the moves were more modest than earlier in the war. Crude lost some ground in the US session to trim Monday's opening jump, while brent crude fell as much as 1.1% to $94.44 a barrel after Monday’s 5.6% gain.
• Gold consolidates as traders weigh possible US-Iran talks and the looming end of the cease-fire. The US and Iran plan to hold peace talks in Islamabad this week. Gold's trajectory will remain closely tied to the developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets and inflation expectations.
• Copper cash-to-three-month spread was quoted at -$75.46 a ton on April 20 on the London Metal Exchange, decreasing $10.38 from the previous trading day. Top-20 brokers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered aggregate net-short positions of copper contracts across front months.

Fixed income:

• US Treasuries saw a steady move higher over the US session, unwinding an opening gap lower and weakness seen over the Asia and early London sessions. The 10-year yield was little changed at 4.249% while the 30-year yield fell 0.5 basis points to 4.882%. Bank of America strategists recommend buying the belly of the curve, expecting them to rally as the market increases bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• New Zealand bonds dropped as faster-than-expected inflation fueled bets on Reserve Bank interest-rate hikes. The yield on the NZ 2-year note climbed 8 basis points to 3.50% while the 10-year debt advanced 4 basis points to 4.63%. Overnight-indexed swaps fully price in three RBNZ rate hikes by year-end.
• Following Friday's sharp rally in Treasuries, open interest jumped in both bond and SOFR futures, indicating new long positions supporting the gains seen across the curve.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.