Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  EURUSD below key support eyeing 1.05
GBPUSD testing key support at 1.2175. Will it hold?
EURGBP testing 0.87 resistance set to movbe higher
Dollar Index testing key resistance at 105.80. Correction time before higher levels?


EURUSD After a couple of tries EURUSD has closed below key support at around 1.0635.

RSI has cancelled its divergence indicating likely lower EURSUD levels. Next support at around 1.05

If 1.05 is reached expect a correction but the underlying sentiment and trend is down as indicated by alle daily Moving Averages are declining. Adding to that the 55 Moving Average is just a few days from breaking below the 100 Moving Average.

Medium-term EURUSD is currently indicating bearish trend. If EURUSD is closing the week below 1.0635 and if weekly RSI is closing below 40 threshold.

To demolish the short-term bearish trend a close above 1.0770 is needed.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD is testing key support at around 1.2175. RSI is around 20 i.e., indicating extremely oversold  but there is no divergence suggesting lower GBPUSD levels are likely. However, a correction should be expected. We rarely see these long periods of trends as we have now seen in GBPUSD (down trend since mid-July) without a larger correction

If RSI is breaking back above its falling (blue) trendline expect a correction to occur. A move up to test the 200 daily Moving Average from beneath is quite common after breaking below.

However, the 1.2175 support is not the strongest support level meaning GBPUSD is likely to continue (after a likely correction) its downtrend towards 1.20 level. 
21, 55  and 100 Moving Averages are alle declining and the 200 is very close to showing an underlying bearish trend and sentiment


Medium-term GBPUSD is in a confirmed bearish trend after it closed last week below 1.23.
Weekly RSI is currently below 40 threshold and if closing the week below it will just add to the bearish picture with medium-term downside potential to around 1.18.

To reverse the bearish trend short term a close above 1.2550 is needed. To demolish the trend i.e., put it on pause a close above 1.2425

EURGBP has reached the 0.382 distance of the top to bottom of the Descending triangle and is  is testing the triangle peak at around 0.87.

RSI is above 60 strongly indicating higher EURGBP levels are likely. A close above 0.87 will pave the way towards 0.88 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.

However, statistically the move after a Descending triangle break out is often cut short at around the 0.618 ratio i.e., at around 0.8737

To demolish this bullish picture EURGBP needs to close back below the upper falling trend line in the triangle

The Dollar Index has touched the strong resistance at around 105.80.
RSI is showing positive sentiment but there is divergence indicating the uptrend is stretched and a correction is looming.

If the Dollar Index is closing above 105.80 the RSI is closing above its upper falling trendline indicating likely higher Index levels. But if the Index is sliding back and the RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline a correction is most likely unfolding

Strong support at around 104.40. A close below is likely to initiate a larger correction down to the 0.382 retracement at around 103.35
A close below 102.85 will reverse the bullish trend.

Medium-term the Dollar Index is likely to move higher. Weekly RSI has closed above 60 indicating likely higher Index levels.
If the Index is closing above 105.80 is could pave the way top 107.90

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992