Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD below key support eyeing 1.05
GBPUSD testing key support at 1.2175. Will it hold?
EURGBP testing 0.87 resistance set to movbe higher
Dollar Index testing key resistance at 105.80. Correction time before higher levels?

EURUSD After a couple of tries EURUSD has closed below key support at around 1.0635.

RSI has cancelled its divergence indicating likely lower EURSUD levels. Next support at around 1.05

If 1.05 is reached expect a correction but the underlying sentiment and trend is down as indicated by alle daily Moving Averages are declining. Adding to that the 55 Moving Average is just a few days from breaking below the 100 Moving Average.

Medium-term EURUSD is currently indicating bearish trend. If EURUSD is closing the week below 1.0635 and if weekly RSI is closing below 40 threshold.

To demolish the short-term bearish trend a close above 1.0770 is needed.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD is testing key support at around 1.2175. RSI is around 20 i.e., indicating extremely oversold  but there is no divergence suggesting lower GBPUSD levels are likely. However, a correction should be expected. We rarely see these long periods of trends as we have now seen in GBPUSD (down trend since mid-July) without a larger correction

If RSI is breaking back above its falling (blue) trendline expect a correction to occur. A move up to test the 200 daily Moving Average from beneath is quite common after breaking below.

However, the 1.2175 support is not the strongest support level meaning GBPUSD is likely to continue (after a likely correction) its downtrend towards 1.20 level. 
21, 55  and 100 Moving Averages are alle declining and the 200 is very close to showing an underlying bearish trend and sentiment

Medium-term GBPUSD is in a confirmed bearish trend after it closed last week below 1.23.
Weekly RSI is currently below 40 threshold and if closing the week below it will just add to the bearish picture with medium-term downside potential to around 1.18.

To reverse the bearish trend short term a close above 1.2550 is needed. To demolish the trend i.e., put it on pause a close above 1.2425

EURGBP has reached the 0.382 distance of the top to bottom of the Descending triangle and is  is testing the triangle peak at around 0.87.

RSI is above 60 strongly indicating higher EURGBP levels are likely. A close above 0.87 will pave the way towards 0.88 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.

However, statistically the move after a Descending triangle break out is often cut short at around the 0.618 ratio i.e., at around 0.8737

To demolish this bullish picture EURGBP needs to close back below the upper falling trend line in the triangle

The Dollar Index has touched the strong resistance at around 105.80.
RSI is showing positive sentiment but there is divergence indicating the uptrend is stretched and a correction is looming.

If the Dollar Index is closing above 105.80 the RSI is closing above its upper falling trendline indicating likely higher Index levels. But if the Index is sliding back and the RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline a correction is most likely unfolding

Strong support at around 104.40. A close below is likely to initiate a larger correction down to the 0.382 retracement at around 103.35
A close below 102.85 will reverse the bullish trend.

Medium-term the Dollar Index is likely to move higher. Weekly RSI has closed above 60 indicating likely higher Index levels.
If the Index is closing above 105.80 is could pave the way top 107.90

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 07

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • The rise of populism: Far-right parties will influence the future

    The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.

    Read article
  • Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges

    Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.

    Read article

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.