Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD below key support eyeing 1.05
GBPUSD testing key support at 1.2175. Will it hold?
EURGBP testing 0.87 resistance set to movbe higher
Dollar Index testing key resistance at 105.80. Correction time before higher levels?

EURUSD After a couple of tries EURUSD has closed below key support at around 1.0635.

RSI has cancelled its divergence indicating likely lower EURSUD levels. Next support at around 1.05

If 1.05 is reached expect a correction but the underlying sentiment and trend is down as indicated by alle daily Moving Averages are declining. Adding to that the 55 Moving Average is just a few days from breaking below the 100 Moving Average.

Medium-term EURUSD is currently indicating bearish trend. If EURUSD is closing the week below 1.0635 and if weekly RSI is closing below 40 threshold.

To demolish the short-term bearish trend a close above 1.0770 is needed.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD is testing key support at around 1.2175. RSI is around 20 i.e., indicating extremely oversold  but there is no divergence suggesting lower GBPUSD levels are likely. However, a correction should be expected. We rarely see these long periods of trends as we have now seen in GBPUSD (down trend since mid-July) without a larger correction

If RSI is breaking back above its falling (blue) trendline expect a correction to occur. A move up to test the 200 daily Moving Average from beneath is quite common after breaking below.

However, the 1.2175 support is not the strongest support level meaning GBPUSD is likely to continue (after a likely correction) its downtrend towards 1.20 level. 
21, 55  and 100 Moving Averages are alle declining and the 200 is very close to showing an underlying bearish trend and sentiment

Medium-term GBPUSD is in a confirmed bearish trend after it closed last week below 1.23.
Weekly RSI is currently below 40 threshold and if closing the week below it will just add to the bearish picture with medium-term downside potential to around 1.18.

To reverse the bearish trend short term a close above 1.2550 is needed. To demolish the trend i.e., put it on pause a close above 1.2425

EURGBP has reached the 0.382 distance of the top to bottom of the Descending triangle and is  is testing the triangle peak at around 0.87.

RSI is above 60 strongly indicating higher EURGBP levels are likely. A close above 0.87 will pave the way towards 0.88 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.

However, statistically the move after a Descending triangle break out is often cut short at around the 0.618 ratio i.e., at around 0.8737

To demolish this bullish picture EURGBP needs to close back below the upper falling trend line in the triangle

The Dollar Index has touched the strong resistance at around 105.80.
RSI is showing positive sentiment but there is divergence indicating the uptrend is stretched and a correction is looming.

If the Dollar Index is closing above 105.80 the RSI is closing above its upper falling trendline indicating likely higher Index levels. But if the Index is sliding back and the RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline a correction is most likely unfolding

Strong support at around 104.40. A close below is likely to initiate a larger correction down to the 0.382 retracement at around 103.35
A close below 102.85 will reverse the bullish trend.

Medium-term the Dollar Index is likely to move higher. Weekly RSI has closed above 60 indicating likely higher Index levels.
If the Index is closing above 105.80 is could pave the way top 107.90


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.