Quarterly Outlook
Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
1130 – US June Challenger Job Cuts
1215 – US June ADP Employment
1415 – ECB President Lagarde to give closing remarks at ECB Sintra conference
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
0145 – China Jun. Caixin Services PMI
Next week: The Progressive Corporation, Fast Retailing, Cintas Corporation, Kongsberg, Delta Airlines
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Market volatility remains muted, with the VIX holding near 17—well below June’s brief spike above 20. VIX futures for mid-July trade around 18.9, reflecting only mild investor caution heading into the next earnings season. For long-term investors, these levels signal a market expecting “routine bumps,” not major disruption. Volatility is currently driven more by sector rotation than any new macro shock.
Bitcoin drifted 2% lower to $106,500, while Ether held at $2,440 despite softer prices. Institutional flows continue: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF slipped 2.2% but remains up 13% YTD, with $75bn in assets. iShares’ ETHA drew $492m last week, highlighting robust demand for spot-Ether exposure. Regulatory news—potential for easier ETF approvals and Deutsche Bank’s crypto custody plans—kept the spotlight on institutional adoption. Crypto-linked equities like COIN and MSTR declined in line with digital assets.
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity