Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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NY Open: FX traders ignore data dump
Summary: US markets are directionally challenged on the final session before Christmas as traders fret about a possible US government shutdown.
The New York morning was chock full of data but markets were not very interested. US Durable Goods Orders for November and Q3 GDP were mildly disappointing as both were below forecasts. Durable Goods rose 0.8% (forecast 1.6%) and Q3 GDP rose 3.4% (revised down from the November estimate of 3.5%) FX traders reacted with a yawn.
USDCAD shrugged off mixed domestic data. October GDP and Retail Sales rose 0.3%. The GDP data was better than expected while Retail Sales was disappointing. USDCAD inched higher on the news but has since reversed the move.
The US dollar index has rallied after testing support at 95.60 but needs a decisive break above resistance at 96.30 to avoid another downside test.
Wall Street is as nervous as an oil sands worker at a climate change convention. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 11.5% since the beginning of December and is coming off another nasty day, yesterday. They have a lot to worry about including the elevated risk of another government shutdown. President Trump threatened a partial shutdown of the government if the spending bill did not include funding for the Mexican border wall. US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis is resigning at the end of February adding to the perception of White House dysfunction. The three major indices are tentatively in positive territory at the open.
Merry Christmas to all! The week ahead will be tranquil due to the Christmas and Seasonal holidays. Monday, Japan is closed for the Emperor’s Birthday while most of the other major markets will be thinly staffed and working for just half the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be write-offs, although the US is open.
The US dollar index has rallied after testing support at 95.60 but needs a decisive break above resistance at 96.30 to avoid another downside test.
Wall Street is as nervous as an oil sands worker at a climate change convention. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 11.5% since the beginning of December and is coming off another nasty day, yesterday. They have a lot to worry about including the elevated risk of another government shutdown. President Trump threatened a partial shutdown of the government if the spending bill did not include funding for the Mexican border wall. US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis is resigning at the end of February adding to the perception of White House dysfunction. The three major indices are tentatively in positive territory at the open.
Merry Christmas to all! The week ahead will be tranquil due to the Christmas and Seasonal holidays. Monday, Japan is closed for the Emperor’s Birthday while most of the other major markets will be thinly staffed and working for just half the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be write-offs, although the US is open.
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