The Week Ahead: Fed minutes, NATO summit, OPEC+ meeting, SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 and PepsiCo, Delta tease earnings season

The sporting calendar is chockers - from the World Cup and Wimbledon to the Tour de France and British Grand Prix; and there’s just as much to look forward to in the economic and corporate diary in the week ahead. 

On Sunday OPEC+ holds a virtual meeting to review oil production policy and output levels before the trading week gets underway. NATO leaders including Donald Trump meet in Turkey, minutes from the first Fed meeting led by Kevin Warsh are released, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 and PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines unofficially kick off earnings season on Wall Street.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 6 July

The week starts with a round of economic data for the Eurozone - retail sales, German factory orders, the Sentix investor confidence survey and PPI inflation – the last an important leading indicator for guessing whether the European Central Bank will be minded to carry out a second rate hike.

PMI data will detail just how badly the UK construction industry is faring – the last report a month ago showed activity contracting at the steepest pace since May 2020, with the survey printing a headline number of 38.2. Later on, the focus is on the latest US ISM services index and whether it can notch a 24th consecutive month in expansion territory.

Bank of England rate setter Catherine Mann speaks on a panel at the Royal Economic Society conference in Newcastle.

Tuesday, 7 July

The NATO summit begins in Turkey, where leaders will discuss defence spending and support for Ukraine. US President Donald Trump is due to attend. It comes after the launch of the UK’s long-awaited defence investment plan, which has given a lift to some UK defence and aerospace names. 

Back home the Bank of England publishes its financial stability report with governor Andrew Bailey due to speak. Before this Halifax releases UK house price data.

In companies, Shell’s Q2 trading update is anticipated to show how much profit has been generated thanks to the elevated oil price. However investors are likely to be more focused on any guidance and outlook for the rest of the year as crude benchmarks retreat to pre-war levels.

On Wall Street, SpaceX will join the Nasdaq-100 index – a move that could spur passive index buying of the stock, which it’s fair to say has had a turbulent start to life on the stock market.

Wednesday, 8 July

Market attention will shift the Federal Reserve as minutes from the first meeting under chair Kevin Warsh are released. Investors will be looking for clues about how FOMC members viewed the decision to drop forward guidance and what their views are on inflation risks. His tenure has already seen a marked change from the Fed.

Ahead of the Fed, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a policy meeting, where it’s expected to raise rates, although doubts have started to creep into markets due to the decline in oil prices. Market-implied odds of a hike slipped from above 80% to under 70% in the last couple of days.

Jet2 full year results are out. In April the holiday operator said results would be in-line with expectations with operating profit expected at £435mn-£440mn. The company also detailed robust booking demand for the June quarter +6.2% on last year, although management mentioned bookings for the summer holiday period were happening “increasingly close to departure”.

Chinese autonomous-driving firm Momenta Global will make its trading debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while Italian lender UniCredit will announce the results of its extended tender offer for Commerzbank shares.

Thursday, 9 July

Chinese CPI and PPI inflation data will set the tone overnight in Asia. Accounts of the last policy meeting of the European Central Bank are published. US initial jobless claims and existing home sales figures are due out later on.

Earnings season kicks off – unofficially at least – as PepsiCo announces its Q2 earnings update. Wall Street’s big banks kick things off proper next week, with JPM due to provide its Q2 results on Tuesday, 14 July.

Friday, 10 July

The week finishes with CPI inflation data from France and Germany that’s likely to inform markets about what the ECB is likely to do next. South Korea’s SK Hynix, one of Asia’s largest chipmakers and AI darling, is expected to debut ADRs on the Nasdaq. Delta Air Lines announces Q2 earnings.

Finally, look out for a quarterly update from recruiter Hays, which could provide some further detail about the state of the UK labour market as investors grapple with whether the Bank of England should be more worried about unemployment or inflation.