The Week Ahead: Markets wait on Iran-US talks outcome ahead of Trump's 6 April deadline, plus US payrolls report

The war in the Middle East is the main driver for global markets and investors await any progress on negotiations between the US and Iran following President Trump’s extension of the deadline for striking energy infrastructure to 6 April. Meanwhile flash CPI data for March from the Eurozone will help show how higher energy prices are feeding through to inflation, while the week ends with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report on the Good Friday holiday that sees most major markets shut.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Sunday – Clocks go forward – US cash equities will open at 14:30 once again.

Monday – Eurozone economic and consumer confidence surveys are due out, likely to show a sharp slump following the onset of the war in the Middle East. Watch for comments from Fed chair Jay Powell and NY Fed president John Williams, who are due to speak at different events. The FCA will set out its approach on motor finance redress shortly after markets close – important for Close Brothers, Lloyds, Barclays among others.

Tuesday – Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs set the tone for the Asian session alongside the Tokyo core inflation and industrial production reports from Japan. Eurozone CPI data for March may offer an indication of whether the spike in energy costs is already starting to show up in consumer inflation. Eurozone inflation has fallen below the ECB’s 2% but is expected to rise due to the surge in oil and gas prices –stand ready for a number of ECB speakers to weigh in afterwards. Meanwhile we’ll be watching the latest monthly GDP release from the UK for signs of the war’s hit to business activity, whilst the US consumer confidence report and JOLTS job openings are the major events in the US session. Chicago Fed chair Austin Goolsbee is due to speak. Nike posts earnings and could be an important bellwether - watch for commentary on rising input costs, demand forecasts and disruption to supply chains. 

Wednesday – Final PMI surveys from developed economies are due but the major economic releases come from the US with the ADP employment report, retail sales figures and ISM manufacturing PMI, with investors likely particularly focused on the prices index. St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem is due to speak.

Thursday – South Korea and Switzerland inflation prints and the US initial jobless claims and Challenger jobs cuts reports are the major economic releases. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan is due to speak and the ECB publishes its economic bulletin.

Good Friday – Most major markets closed – US, UK, Canada and much of Europe as well as some Asian markets, including Hong Kong and Singapore.It’s also Jobs Day: The monthly US nonfarm payrolls report will be a key test for market strength as it will provide more detail on whether recent signs of labour market softening are deepening. Forecasts suggest payrolls growth of around +50k.