More record highs for equities as investors look to tech stocks and ETFs: Saxo UK market and client trends report April

• Scores on the doors: Global stocks at record highs, tech bounces back on AI demand surging, commodity rally broadening out, inflation concerns driving yields if not central bank action for now. TL/DR is simply tech optimism trumped Iran war fears; the AI trade is firmly in control of stock market returns.

• As peace talks stalled fear about the ongoing impact of the US-Iran conflict started to weigh on risk appetite in the final week of April, pushing up global bond yields and spiking oil with Brent crude hitting its highest since June 2022. Nevertheless while we saw stress in energy markets and bonds global stocks recovered strongly.

• The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their April meeting, likely outgoing chair Jay Powell’s last, with officials signalling higher-for-longer rates due to persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in few, if any, rate cuts for the remainder of 2026.

• The Bank of England also left interest rates on hold, but cited readiness to act should inflation pick up. Gilt yields rose over the month with the 10yr breaching 5% for the first time since 2008.

• The European Central Bank was on hold as Eurozone inflation rose to 3.0% and bund yields hit their highest since 2011.

• Japan weighed into FX markets to shore up the yen, sending USDJPY down sharply and sparking a broader selloff in USD.

• Earnings season began on Wall Street with companies reporting good earnings and revenue growth, with around 80% of S&P 500 companies reported so far beating earnings expectations.

• UK equities struggled relative to others, with the FTSE 100 ending the month up just 2%, mainly off the back of its 1.6% gain on 30 April. Intertek and DCC topped the gainers on takeover bids, while trusts Polar Capital and Scottish Mortgage rallied strongly on the back of the rally in tech. 

• The DAX and Stoxx 600 both posted their best month in more than a year. Italian stocks rose 9% for their best month in three years. South Korea's KOSPI jumped 30% for its best monthly gain in 28 years, led by AI-driven demand for semiconductor giants SK Hynix and Samsun Electronics. It's an absurdly concentrated market.

• Wall Street was on fire too: The S&P 500 rose +10.4% in April for its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq advanced +15% for its best month since April 2020. The Dow’s 7% advance was its best month since November 2024. Intel doubled over the month to top the S&P 500, while there were strong gains also for memory stocks Seagate and Sandisk.

• The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index rose 4.2% in April, lifting the year-to-date gain to 30%, with all sectors except precious metals posting positive returns; energy remains the dominant driver. More on that from Ole.

Client Trends

Main highlights: Saxo UK clients were active buyers of US tech stocks but showed discretion. Overall clients were net buyers of Microsoft, Tesla, Micron, Alphabet and Apple, but were net sellers of Nvidia, Amazon, AMD, Meta and Intel. There was a mixed bag of earnings updates in the final week of April from five of the Mag7 names. 

Among UK stocks the most actively traded were BP (net sold) and Rolls-Royce (net bought).

Diversification remains a key theme and driver of trading activity as we saw significant positive buy ratios for a range of equity and commodity exchange traded products. ETFs offering exposure to global, US and UK equities remain the most popular but we also saw strong buying in thematic ETFs offering exposure to semiconductors, commodities and clean energy. ETFs are more commonly featured in long-term, buy-and-hold type investor portfolios and therefore tend to have a stronger % buy rating than many single stocks, which may traded in and out more easily. Nevertheless, the strong buy ratings (bottom table) for a number of ETFs indicates solid appetite among clients to build holdings over the long term as opposed to selling down holdings.

The iShares MSCI Korea ETF was popular as clients lent into the rally in Korean shares.

Top 40 most traded stocks and ETFs in April with % of trades that were buys

Most Popular – stocks and ETFs with the strongest % buy ratio in January (minimum # of trades required)