The Week Ahead: PMIs, US inflation in focus post Fed, Trump kicks off 80th UN General Assembly

With the slew of central bank decisions in the rear-view mirror – notably the Fed’s first cut since late last year – the focus this week returns to some economic data.

US inflation data is likely to be the main event on the calendar as markets try to work out whether the Fed was too swift to loosen policy. Will rising price pressures necessitate a more careful approach to cutting interest rates than currently implied by the market? Or will we see signs of cooling, opening the door to further rate cuts this year?

Elsewhere, flash PMIs will be of note, while we’ll also be watching revised US GDP numbers, consumer confidence data for the US and Europe, as well as US home sales, durable goods orders and inventories.

In New York, the 80th UN General Assembly kicks off with an address from Donald Trump. The debate runs through to 29, September.

Monday, 22 September

China’s benchmark lending rates could be tweaked early in the session but otherwise it’s a slow day for economic data. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, fresh from a rate decision last week and tweak to gilt sales, is due to talk in the evening on culture risk governance and regulation.

Tuesday, 23 September

PMI day comes – flash manufacturing and services survey data comes first from the Eurozone before the UK and US reports. For the UK. It's an interesting setup as manufacturing slipped while services activity is improving despite the fall-off in the labour market – signs of an AI-inspired productivity boost?

The S&P Global UK Services PMI climbed to 53.6 in August 2025 from 51.8 in July, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.3 in August from 48 points in July. Meanwhile the US report showed faster growth and hiring – so why did the Fed cut rates?

The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Micron is due to report earnings after notching a series of record highs in recent sessions.

Wednesday, 24 September

Australia’s CPI inflation report kicks off the Asian session before Japan’s core CPI report. Germany’s Ifo business climate report is about the only report of interest in the European session. For the US, new home sales and crude oil inventories are on the docket.

Thursday, 25 September

The Swiss National Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The SNB sees a high bar to reintroduce negative interest rates, chairman Martin Schlegel said earlier this month. The central bank in June cut rates to zero to combat persistently low inflation.

A slate of US data is also due to be released, including the final Q2 GDP reading and durable goods orders. The major focus is likely to be on the weekly unemployment claims report for a fast-moving snapshot of the US labour market. Then we hear from a slew of Fed officials, with at least five members of the FOMC slated to speak.

The BOJ releases minutes from its July meeting, whilst Japan’s 40-year government bond auction will be closely watched by JPY traders following signs of weak demand at recent JGB sales.

On the earnings front, Costco reports amid tariff pressures. BP presents its annual energy outlook with long-term forecasts to 2050.

Friday, 26 September

The highlight of the week is the US core PCE inflation report – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The index showed that core inflation ran at a 2.9% annual rate in July, meeting estimates but higher than the 2.7% June. Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month, in line with expectations. Consumer spending increased 0.5% on the month. The report comes after the Fed last week cut rates despite forecasting higher inflation over the coming years. A slower pace of inflation is likely needed to cement expectations for further cuts this year. Ahead of this is the Tokyo core CPI inflatio, while the UoM consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations is after.