Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
August started rocky for markets and ended in similar fashion but the bit in the middle was good enough to see Wall Street notch its fourth straight monthly gain. August 1st was the tariff deadline and stocks tumbled at the start of the month. But they quickly recovered and turned positive with record highs being seen across developed markets. September could be rockier as traders return to their desks and multiple fronts of uncertainty seem to be swirling around.
The passing of the tariff deadline saw deals struck and tariffs of varying levels imposted. By the end of the month a US court said reciprocal tariffs were illegal. Fed chair Jay Powell left the door open to a September rate cut and the dollar declined against all its G10 peers while gold shot higher to almost $3,500. US GDP growth was stronger than expected and earnings season was positive but Nvidia slackened despite beating expectations.
In the US, the S&P 500 closed above 6,500 for the first time as the broad market rallied over 2% for the month.The Dow Jones rose 3% and the Nasdaq was up 1.6% for the month. A wobble in tech shares on the last trading day took some of the shine off the performance and maybe offers a foretaste of the seasonal volatility we can expect in September, usually the weakest month of the year for each of the three major indices.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 put in a modest gain for the month, with banking stocks sliding on the last day to take some shine off the performance in August, which had seen it breach 9,300 for the first time. Fresnillo was the top riser, gaining around 25% during the month as precious metals enjoyed a resurgence following a pullback at the end of July. Spirax gained over 17% as the engineering group seemed to revive fortunes with strength in its Electrical Thermal Solutions division driving strong organic sales growth. The weakest performers were Sage, Croda International, Beazley and Mondi, all down double-digit percents. Nevertheless, the FTSE 100 remains solidly up more than 11% for the year. Popular names like BP, Lloyds and Vodafone all climbed about 5%, while defence darling Rolls-Royce rallied over 7%.
European shares were broadly higher too though concerns surfaced in France about the fiscal position and political instability. The Stoxx 600 rose 1% and remains 8% higher YTD. The Nikkei advanced 4% for the month as Japanese equities picked up some momentum.
Favourite Stocks
Nvidia remained the most traded stock on the platform among UK clients, with a 58% net buy score. Earnings from the chipmaker largely confirmed everything we know but shares ticked lower afterwards. Next was Palantir, which burst towards $190 at one stage during the month to set a fresh record high before paring gains to below $160. It remains a volatile and unpredictable asset, but extremely popular with 61% net buys. Third on the list was Amazon, which, to invert a saying about March, went in like a lamb and out like a lion. A huge gap lower on 1 August took the stock down to $211 before a steady climb back to $231 by the month’s end.
Tesla, Apple and Alphabet were among the most traded names but they were marginally net sold by clients last month.
Rolls-Royce was the only UK-listed company to make the top 20 traded shares of the month – something of a reversal for the UK market after a solid few months.
Among some of the other names we continue to witness extraordinary interest in what can be classed as speculative US tech names – including BitMine Immersion Technologies, Strategy – the Bitcoin trade; volatile AI plays like CoreWeave and SoundHoundAI; and new meme stocks like Opendoor Technologies.
Saxo UK's most actively traded stocks
Most Traded Stocks | Buy% |
NVIDIA Corp. | 58% |
Palantir Technologies Inc | 61% |
Tesla Inc. | 48% |
Amazon.com Inc. | 59% |
Apple Inc. | 47% |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | 53% |
Alphabet Inc. - A Share | 46% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. | 71% |
Microsoft Corp. | 62% |
Coinbase Global Inc | 56% |
Intel Corp. | 44% |
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF | 65% |
Meta Platforms Inc. | 52% |
Novo Nordisk B A/S | 73% |
Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc | 56% |
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc | 72% |
Strategy Inc. | 65% |
Super Micro Computer Inc. | 50% |
CoreWeave Inc. | 69% |
Eli Lilly & Co. | 69% |
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR | 41% |
Robinhood Markets Inc. | 59% |
Broadcom Inc. | 50% |
SoundHound AI Inc | 48% |
Nebius Group NV | 64% |
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B | 73% |
Opendoor Technologies Inc. | 64% |
Rigetti Computing, Inc. | 57% |
Figma Inc. | 81% |
Legal & General Group Plc | 69% |
The Trade Desk Inc. | 62% |
Glencore Plc | 52% |
Rocket Lab USA Inc. | 63% |
Taylor Wimpey Plc | 82% |
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF | 72% |
Hims & Hers Health Inc. | 65% |
Palo Alto Networks Inc. | 65% |
SoFi Technologies Inc | 51% |
BP Plc | 43% |
BAE Systems | 54% |
Source: Saxo UK, as of Friday 31 August.