The Week Ahead: US-Iran war remains key; Fed’s Warsh Senate hearing and Tesla, Intel, Boeing set to report earnings

The war in the Middle East is on pause for now allowing investors to focus on earnings season. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire at the end of Tuesday, with hopes for talks to end the conflict high as we head into the weekend. Expectations are also very high coming into this quarter’s reporting period with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs ahead of the busiest stretch for corporate updates.

Ahead of the start of the week on Saturday the Fed’s external communications blackout period begins ahead of its April 28-29 rate-setting meeting, while the IMF and World Bank spring meetings wrap up in Washington.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday 

The trading week kicks off with the US-Iran truce deadline approaching and risk assets will be sensitive to any developments over the weekend. Economic news is relative sparse with the UK’s Rightmove house price index, China loan prime rates and Canada’s CPI inflation among the key releases.

Not much on the US corporate calendar either but SanDisk joins the Nasdaq 100 today, replacing Atlassian Corporation. In London, Rio Tinto posts its Q1 trading update.

Tuesday– as of publication time the US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at day’s end.

UK unemployment and earnings data will be the major one for sterling crosses as markets assess whether the next move by the Bank of England is to hike or cut. Governor Andrew Bailey has been making the point that markets were too swift to price in hikes this year due to inflation fears – the employment data is likely to tell a story that suggests cuts are needed instead.

In the US, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is due to testify before the Senate Banking Committee in a confirmation hearing. Retail sales data will also be released.

On Wall Street earnings are due from UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, RTX and Northrop Grumman.

In Britain, Primark owner Associated British Foods posts its interim results while British Land posts its Q4 trading update. In Europe luxury goods maker Moncler reports earnings.

Wednesday

Tesla’s earnings update is the major highlight of the week for retail investors as the stock remains a firm favourite among clients. The focus is as usual on EV deliveries, margins and updates on initiatives such as FSD and robotaxis, albeit the main number to watch may not be EPS but the capex spend and any updates on the Terafab plant – Tesla's planned 1-terwatt AI compute facility. Competition in China and rising raw material costs are likely to weigh on margins.The stock heads into earnings week after breaking out of a multi-month descending channel on news its AI chip design is ready.

Elsewhere, earnings come from Lam Research, GE Vernova, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing and ServiceNow, one of the beaten-up software names that’s had a big rally in recent sessions.

In the UK, Aberdeen, Bunzl, Quilter and Reckitt Benckiser deliver earnings updates. Big day for the French stock market with Danone, Carrefour, L’Oreal and EssilorLuxxoticaposting earnings updates.

On the economic data front the UK’s CPI inflation report will be watched for signs of how much prices have been affected by the war in the Middle East. Eurozone consumer confidence survey data is released, and ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on global challenges at the London School of Economics.

Thursday

Intel reports earnings in what’s likely to be a big test for the stock after its stellar rally. American Express will provide colour of travel and consumer spend trends, while there are also earnings updates from Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Honeywelland Lockheed Martin. Meanwhile Southern Copper is slated to report either Thursday or Friday. 

On this side of the pond, Sainsbury’s posts its full-year results – see if it can match the +8.5% profit growth at Tesco. We also get earnings updates from Asos, LSEG, Roche, Sanofi, SAPand Heineken among others on a busy day for corporate updates in Europe.

Economic highlights are the flash PMI surveys from Japan, Europe, Britain and the US – all likely to show declining activity, higher costs from increased input prices and a generally darker outlook from the war in the Middle East.

Friday

In Britain we get a snapshot of consumer confidence from GfK and the monthly UK retail sales data. In the US the main focus is on the UoM consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations.

On the corporate front there are earnings updates from Procter & Gamble and oilfield services company SLB. 

Winding down for the weekend there are a handful of earnings releases in Europe including from Eni and Mondi.