Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
It’s another busy week for financial markets, with corporate earnings from a number of popular AI stocks and economic data from the UK and Eurozone. As long as the US government shutdown continues, economic data will be spotty, while nervousness about tech stock valuations could see volatility remain elevated.
Monday, 10 November
Chinese consumer and producer price inflation data is released on Sunday and sets the tone for the start of the Asian session. Expect year-on-year CPI inflation and PPI inflation to remain in deflation territory.COP30, the UN Climate Change Conference, kicks off in Brazil, while the two-day AI Summit begins Seoul, South Korea. The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions from its October 29-30 meeting.
AI stock CoreWeave is due to report third quarter earnings after the closing bell. One of the most popular stocks this year, it’s rolled over somewhat after a searing rally since debuting in March.
Tuesday, 11 November
UK employment data is the one to watch for GBP FX pairs and gilt markets. Traders will be looking for clues about whether the jobs market and wage growth is pointing towards a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. Germany ZEW survey expectations are released. China holds its annual Singles’ Day shopping festival, featuring discounted offers from e-commerce giants including Alibaba and JD.com. Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene and ECB Governing Council members Boris Vujcic and Martin Kocher speak. Bond markets in the US will shut in observance of Veterans Day, while the stock market will be open for business as usual.
Earnings come from Occidental Petroleum and nuclear energy company Oklo. AI name Nebius is also due to release earnings, with the stock having run up some 250% or so this year.
Wednesday, 12 November
On the data front, watch for EUR crosses moving on Germany inflation numbers and Italian industrial production figures. We’ll keep an eye on the US Treasury Market Conference at the New York Fed, with thebank’s President John Williams and Treasury Secretary ScottBessent due to make remarks. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks and BoE chief economist Huw Pill is also due to make remarks, potentially offering some steer on December rate cut chances. OPEC is due to publish its monthly oil market report.
Earnings come from Cisco Systems and Circle Internet, one of this year’s most popular and volatile stocks. BAE Systems delivers a trading update.
Thursday, 13 November
The UK’s GDP report is expected to show some modest growth ahead of the Budget, which could be a slight boost to Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Industrial production data is published alongside. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks on monetary policy, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh.
Earnings from some of the big China tech/AI companies will be closely watched – Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent are all due to release quarterly earnings. Applied Materials, Nu Holdings and Netease are also on the schedule. Rolls-Royce and Aviva provide third quarter trading updates.
Friday, 14 November
Eurozone GDP and French CPI inflation numbers will be the major economic release to watch for, assuming the US government shutdown continues. Meanwhile the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels to discuss the 2026 budget.
Finally, it’s the filing deadline for third-quarter 13Fs, offering a look into the positions of big hedge funds in the US.