Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - S&P 500 uptrend weak. Nasdaq 100 struggling for momentum. Dow Jones extends uptrend but is stretched
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
S&P500 closed higher under light trading last week. In general, the volume was declining day by day indicating a weak uptrend. And it is an uptrend, nonetheless, supported by no RSI divergence.
An uptrend that could continue to strong resistance at around 4,110.
A close below 3,900 is needed to change the uptrend picture. A close below 3,900 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 3,800 but there is no strong support until around 3,700-3,647
Contrary to S&P500 the Nasdaq 100 is struggling to confirm its uptrend. RSI is still below 60 threshold after several times of rejection. An Index close above 12K is likely to change that.
However, Nasdaq is showing weakness and a close below 11,500 is likely to trigger a sell-off down to around October lows
If Nasdaq 100 manages to close above 12K a test of the medium-term falling black trendline is likely. Strong resistance at around 12,752.
200 daily SMA also coming down providing resistance.
Dow Jones cancelled the top and reversal patterns moving higher to close above resistance at 34,281. Despite the higher close there is divergence on RSI indicating the uptrend is rather weak forming what could be a rising wedge pattern. A close below the lower trend line in the wedge like pattern could indicate a sell-off down to support at around 33,239 possibly testing the medium-term falling trendline. A close below 33,239 could fuel a strong sell-off to support around 32K-31,727
However, if Dow Jones fail to close below 33,239 the uptrend could extend to 35k-35,294
RSI divergence explained: When price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...