Netherlands is still favourite with Portugal running second
On 18 November we published our initial predictions on the 2022 FIFA World Cup making the Netherlands the favourite to win the World Cup instead of the consensus bookmaker choice of Brazil and Argentina. As described in our initial note and in more depth here we based on our predictions on Elo ratings with five adjustment factors added and then simulated 10,000 times using monte carlo simulation. Our non-consensus predictions were met with ridicule, but as we pointed out on social media, football and also our predictions are fun and games with a grain of seriousness of course. A more important point as well, is that in order to have markets and people betting on events traders and gamblers must have predictions that diverge from consensus.
Four days later on 22 November we made our first updated predictions which had the Netherlands maintaining its role as lead favourite due to its win in the first round. Argentina’s defeat to Saudi Arabia immediately reduced their win probability to just 9% down from 22% consensus before the tournament and our 14% win probability before the tournament based on our Elo adjustments, which we elaborate on below. Our first update was short and only made available on Twitter, but in this second update we not only show the new updated probabilities, we also go into more detail on our Elo adjustments and what we have done to them since the start of the tournament.
Based on the results as of yesterday our new model simulation is still having the Netherlands as the top favourite to win the tournament, but Portugal has jumped to second place with Spain trailing at the third place. Besides Portugal seeing a big jump in its win probability, Denmark has seen a massive drop from 11% in our initial set of predictions to just 2.8% due to only getting a draw and losing one in the first two matches below well below the indicated Elo level ahead of the tournament.