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London Quick Take – 6 Jan - Stock markets hit record highs despite Venezuela geopolitical angst, Next beats and raises, metals extend run
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
I had a look at some key investing themes for 2026 here and
TL/DR: FTSE 100, Stoxx 600 and Dow Jones hit record highs, Japanese equities hit record highs, copper hits record highs, gold and silver within whisker of record high, crude prices not really moving, sterling rallies on closer EU alignment potential.
Long term macro shifting trends in microcosm – deglobalisation, multipolarity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, trade disruption...it’s all there in the Venezuela situation and we can expect more to come. Removing Maduro is just the latest phase in Trump’s reordering the global balance of power via a mix of trade, economic, diplomatic and military means. So, evolution not revolution but let’s not diminish what a big deal this is and what it points to. It marks a major shift in the way the global power game is played, and we cannot ignore what risks this could pose to investors even if markets kinda yawned and shrugged off the geopolitics for the moment. It comes down to this - the US has forever meddled in Latin American politics - Panama, Cuba, the list is endless. But Greenland being talked about at the same time is where it gets interesting - and what signal does it send China and Russia about their own versions of the Donroe Doctrine?
US oil companies rallied, with Chevron +5% and the S&P 500 energy sector (XLE) rising to its highest level in over a year. Valero and SLB both climbed 9% on what was one of the best days for US energy stocks in a long while. The expected boon for the likes of Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips et al is likely a long way off, however, as it will take years and tens of billions of dollars to right the infrastructure. And that’s even if you get regulatory and legal certainty about what they can do. But investors bought into Chevron and our clients were among the movers on that front.
The lift for Chevron helped the Dow Jones rally 1.4% to a record intraday high above 49k, before finishing the session 1.23%, or almost 600pts, higher. US banks did well – banks love war. European defence stocks rallied firmly – a world of hard power where might is right means rearmament. The Stoxx 600 broke 600 for the first time - Goldman thinks it can go to 625. I looked briefly at the different ways the market was responding to the crisis in Venezuela yesterday.
Tesla rallied 3% after Elon Musk said he’d had a lovely dinner with Trump. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rallied about 1%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang kicked off CES 2026 in Las Vegas with a new, more powerful Vera Rubin chip made for AI and a reasoning system for autonomous vehicles called Alpamayo – is the AI trade going to blow up in 2026? NVDA fell a touch on the session but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both firmed up around two-thirds of a percent.
Tech is driving the action in Asia as risk sentiment remains strong – Asian shares extended gains and the Topix in Japan jumped 1.5% to a record high, while the Nikkei 225.
Metals are higher due to the geopolitics and continuation of the 2025 rally. Gold rose over 2% to $4,430 per ounce on Monday and extended gains to $4,460 this morning. Silver jumped over 4.5% to above $76 per ounce Monday, and has extended gains another 2% today to trade above $78. The copper price hit $13,000 a tonne for the first time, lifted by worries about tariffs and a strike in Chile.
The dollar is weaker with an attempted rally yesterday rejected. EURUSD moved to 1.1650 but rallied sharply to clear 1.17 again this morning - the hammer candle pointing to a reversal of the two-week downtrend. GBPUSD popped to 1.3560, its best in four months. Sterling also seems to be making moves against the euro, hitting a four-month high as well, so it’s not just a dollar story – Keir Starmer’s bill to forge closer alignment with the EU is something to consider – it may be that forex traders are envisaging closer trade with the bloc. Starmer’s position is untenable and he is likely going to be replaced before the May elections. Rival and potential candidate to replace him, Wes Streeting, has talked up the benefits of a customs union. Starmer’s plan to forge closer ties with the EU is designed to fend off the pro-European wing in the party, which is pressuring the government to move a lot closer to Europe. However it plays out, the market seems to think the UK will be forced closer to Europe. I wonder what a US invasion of Greenland would mean...? I did talk about a potential backdoor return for Britain in our Outrageous Predictions for 2026.
At least this week we return to some vague normality in terms of official US data. Wall Street is particularly interested in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls number. Ahead of these we have ADP and Jolts job numbers on Wednesday, and the weekly unemployment claims report on Thursday.
Crypto stocks: Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to a buy from hold and raised its price target to $303, calling it a "best-in-class play" on cryptocurrency infrastructure growth.
In the UK, Next delivered another beat and raise. Christmas sales rose 10.7%, well ahead of the 7% expected. The better-than-expected performance sent Next shares up 3% to the top of the FTSE 100, which hit a new record high.
Long term macro shifting trends in microcosm – deglobalisation, multipolarity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, trade disruption...it’s all there in the Venezuela situation and we can expect more to come. Removing Maduro is just the latest phase in Trump’s reordering the global balance of power via a mix of trade, economic, diplomatic and military means. So, evolution not revolution but let’s not diminish what a big deal this is and what it points to. It marks a major shift in the way the global power game is played, and we cannot ignore what risks this could pose to investors even if markets kinda yawned and shrugged off the geopolitics for the moment. It comes down to this - the US has forever meddled in Latin American politics - Panama, Cuba, the list is endless. But Greenland being talked about at the same time is where it gets interesting - and what signal does it send China and Russia about their own versions of the Donroe Doctrine?
US oil companies rallied, with Chevron +5% and the S&P 500 energy sector (XLE) rising to its highest level in over a year. Valero and SLB both climbed 9% on what was one of the best days for US energy stocks in a long while. The expected boon for the likes of Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips et al is likely a long way off, however, as it will take years and tens of billions of dollars to right the infrastructure. And that’s even if you get regulatory and legal certainty about what they can do. But investors bought into Chevron and our clients were among the movers on that front.
The lift for Chevron helped the Dow Jones rally 1.4% to a record intraday high above 49k, before finishing the session 1.23%, or almost 600pts, higher. US banks did well – banks love war. European defence stocks rallied firmly – a world of hard power where might is right means rearmament. The Stoxx 600 broke 600 for the first time - Goldman thinks it can go to 625. I looked briefly at the different ways the market was responding to the crisis in Venezuela yesterday.
Tesla rallied 3% after Elon Musk said he’d had a lovely dinner with Trump. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rallied about 1%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang kicked off CES 2026 in Las Vegas with a new, more powerful Vera Rubin chip made for AI and a reasoning system for autonomous vehicles called Alpamayo – is the AI trade going to blow up in 2026? NVDA fell a touch on the session but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both firmed up around two-thirds of a percent.
Tech is driving the action in Asia as risk sentiment remains strong – Asian shares extended gains and the Topix in Japan jumped 1.5% to a record high, while the Nikkei 225.
Metals are higher due to the geopolitics and continuation of the 2025 rally. Gold rose over 2% to $4,430 per ounce on Monday and extended gains to $4,460 this morning. Silver jumped over 4.5% to above $76 per ounce Monday, and has extended gains another 2% today to trade above $78. The copper price hit $13,000 a tonne for the first time, lifted by worries about tariffs and a strike in Chile.
The dollar is weaker with an attempted rally yesterday rejected. EURUSD moved to 1.1650 but rallied sharply to clear 1.17 again this morning - the hammer candle pointing to a reversal of the two-week downtrend. GBPUSD popped to 1.3560, its best in four months. Sterling also seems to be making moves against the euro, hitting a four-month high as well, so it’s not just a dollar story – Keir Starmer’s bill to forge closer alignment with the EU is something to consider – it may be that forex traders are envisaging closer trade with the bloc. Starmer’s position is untenable and he is likely going to be replaced before the May elections. Rival and potential candidate to replace him, Wes Streeting, has talked up the benefits of a customs union. Starmer’s plan to forge closer ties with the EU is designed to fend off the pro-European wing in the party, which is pressuring the government to move a lot closer to Europe. However it plays out, the market seems to think the UK will be forced closer to Europe. I wonder what a US invasion of Greenland would mean...? I did talk about a potential backdoor return for Britain in our Outrageous Predictions for 2026.
At least this week we return to some vague normality in terms of official US data. Wall Street is particularly interested in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls number. Ahead of these we have ADP and Jolts job numbers on Wednesday, and the weekly unemployment claims report on Thursday.
Crypto stocks: Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to a buy from hold and raised its price target to $303, calling it a "best-in-class play" on cryptocurrency infrastructure growth.
In the UK, Next delivered another beat and raise. Christmas sales rose 10.7%, well ahead of the 7% expected. The better-than-expected performance sent Next shares up 3% to the top of the FTSE 100, which hit a new record high.
I had a look at some key investing themes for 2026 here
Read my look at some ideas for 2026 here.