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London Quick Take - 23 Sep - Airtel Money to float in London, oil slides for 6th day, Nasdaq posts another record high
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
The focus is turning to the huge geopolitical risk event that is Xi meeting Trump in Washington – could split either way with a fresh trade truce or could see some fresh signs of friction...I don't think there is going to be some grand bargain emerging from this summit but warm words and good vibes might be sufficient given the bullishness around AI and signs of progress with the US-Iran war.
Oil fell for a sixth straight session with Brent dropping below $100 as Saudi Arabia signalled it's preparing to restart its East-West pipeline, while Trump said US and Iranian officials held a “very productive” meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA. Oil also fell on reports Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases its oil blockade. Trump told the UN the US and Iran would do a deal after the midterm elections in November. The main worry is not the price of Brent as such but what a diesel export ban in the US would mean for gasoil futs, which is the main feedstock for diesel, jet fuel etc. Trump says he supports banning US diesel exports as soaring prices are hitting farmers and truckers.
The US dollar rallied to its strongest in two months as front-end Treasury yields firmed up on rate hike bets. The 2yr Treasury yield rose to a fresh cycle high 4.79%, its strongest since 2024, as markets moved to price in a greater-than-evens chance the Fed would follow up with a rate hike in October. The move has taken the dollar back to where it was before the July FOMC meeting where Warsh fumbled the play and the market took a dovish reading from his communication. GBPUSD broke down at the 1.3360 support zone and is now testing 1.330, potentially signalling a move to retest the 1.3270 area, the lows from July. Ultimately, my view is that sterling should be lower and should retest 1.314, the June cycle low.
Start with some good news – Airtel Money, he mobile payments business owned by FTSE 100 member Airtel Africa – has confirmed plans to float in what's going to be the biggest London IPO in years. It's thought to be seeking a valuation as high as $9bn (£6.8bn). It's clearly a big positive for the London market. Lately it's been like a car boot sale with just crumbs of secondary placements and small capital raisings.
Artificial intelligence > real stupidity...It's not artificial intelligence...it's super intelligence, according to President Trump: “The use of the word artificial makes intelligence fake... It is not fake. It’s actually amazing." OpenAI Sam Altman and Anthropic boss Dario Amodei are set to address the United Nations Security Council later on Wednesday about AI safety.
Chipmakers advanced again as AI (or should that be SI?) optimism with the Nasdaq punching out a fresh record high on Tuesday, finishing up +0.45%, with SanDisk the standout as it climbed +7% on a bullish note from Rosenblatt, while Intel +5% and Arm Holdings +3% chipped in. Mag7 were mixed with Nvidia, Tesla and Apple positive and Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon giving back a bit. The S&P 500 ended flat after posting its best day since 4 August on Monday, and the Dow Jones shipped –0.36%.
European stock markets advanced early Wednesday, largely building on gains from Tuesday's session which saw the Stoxx 600 rise +0.1%. The FTSE 100 rallied around 0.4% having slid –0.3% in the prior session, with the CAC in Paris up a similar level, though the DAX was flat. There are some improving signs in Europe with German firms reporting a “solid and accelerated increase” in output of goods and services in September, with the flash composite PMI rising to an 11-month high. Private sector activity in France bounced back to its fastest pace in two years.
Artificial intelligence > real stupidity...It's not artificial intelligence...it's super intelligence, according to President Trump: “The use of the word artificial makes intelligence fake... It is not fake. It’s actually amazing." OpenAI Sam Altman and Anthropic boss Dario Amodei are set to address the United Nations Security Council later on Wednesday about AI safety.
Chipmakers advanced again as AI (or should that be SI?) optimism with the Nasdaq punching out a fresh record high on Tuesday, finishing up +0.45%, with SanDisk the standout as it climbed +7% on a bullish note from Rosenblatt, while Intel +5% and Arm Holdings +3% chipped in. Mag7 were mixed with Nvidia, Tesla and Apple positive and Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon giving back a bit. The S&P 500 ended flat after posting its best day since 4 August on Monday, and the Dow Jones shipped –0.36%.
European stock markets advanced early Wednesday, largely building on gains from Tuesday's session which saw the Stoxx 600 rise +0.1%. The FTSE 100 rallied around 0.4% having slid –0.3% in the prior session, with the CAC in Paris up a similar level, though the DAX was flat. There are some improving signs in Europe with German firms reporting a “solid and accelerated increase” in output of goods and services in September, with the flash composite PMI rising to an 11-month high. Private sector activity in France bounced back to its fastest pace in two years.
The focus is turning to the huge geopolitical risk event that is Xi meeting Trump in Washington – could split either way with a fresh trade truce or could see some fresh signs of friction...I don't think there is going to be some grand bargain emerging from this summit but warm words and good vibes might be sufficient given the bullishness around AI and signs of progress with the US-Iran war.
Oil fell for a sixth straight session with Brent dropping below $100 as Saudi Arabia signalled it's preparing to restart its East-West pipeline, while Trump said US and Iranian officials held a “very productive” meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA. Oil also fell on reports Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases its oil blockade. Trump told the UN the US and Iran would do a deal after the midterm elections in November. The main worry is not the price of Brent as such but what a diesel export ban in the US would mean for gasoil futs, which is the main feedstock for diesel, jet fuel etc. Trump says he supports banning US diesel exports as soaring prices are hitting farmers and truckers.
The US dollar rallied to its strongest in two months as front-end Treasury yields firmed up on rate hike bets. The 2yr Treasury yield rose to a fresh cycle high 4.79%, its strongest since 2024, as markets moved to price in a greater-than-evens chance the Fed would follow up with a rate hike in October. The move has taken the dollar back to where it was before the July FOMC meeting where Warsh fumbled the play and the market took a dovish reading from his communication. GBPUSD broke down at the 1.3360 support zone and is now testing 1.330, potentially signalling a move to retest the 1.3270 area, the lows from July. Ultimately, my view is that sterling should be lower and should retest 1.314, the June cycle low.
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