Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus

Earnings Watch: Big earnings week with technology giants in focus

Equities 5 minutes to read
Peter Garnry

Head of Saxo Strats

Summary:  The performance of the US technology sector will be closely watched this week as the largest companies in the S&P 500 report their earnings. Investors will be looking for signs that the sector is still strong, despite the recent economic downturn. Companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta are expected to report strong earnings growth, but the focus will be on their outlook for the future. In addition to the US tech giants, there are also some important earnings releases from European companies this week. Investors will be watching Novo Nordisk and ING Groep closely as they are expected to report strong earnings growth as well, but they are also facing some headwinds. The overall market sentiment will hinge on whether the companies report strong earnings and positive outlooks.

Sentiment hinges on technology earnings deliver on high expectations

The Q4 earnings season is well under way with 25% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index having reporting earnings. The preliminary conclusion so far is that companies are delivering earnings growth high enough to satisfy market expectations. S&P 500 earnings growth is so far 8.2% y/y against arguably a weak comparable as Q4 2022 became a kitchen-sink quarter with excessive cost-cutting charges and weak banking. Nasdaq 100 companies have done even better with earnings growth currently estimated at 31.7% y/y in Q4, but with the largest US technology earnings on tap this week that earnings growth could change dramatically. In other words, when this week is over we have a much better understanding of the underlying growth and more importantly the outlook for these technology companies.

Given the S&P 500 Index is back to all-time highs expectations have also risen and as such this earnings season and especially this week is important for sustaining the current momentum. Overall, we remain positive on earnings growth and that the probability is low for the global economy slipping into a recession, and our view is that the Q4 earnings season will support this view.

S&P 500 continuous futures | Source: Saxo

Key US earnings this week: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta

The list below shows the top 30 market cap companies reporting earnings this week and thus are the most important earnings releases in terms of how they can impact sentiment in the broader equity indices.

  • Tuesday: Volvo, Stryker, Mondelez, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), AMD, Starbucks, Chubb, Danaher, Pfizer, UPS

  • Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Mastercard, Novartis, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Boeing

  • Thursday: Apple, Roche, Amazon, Meta, Merck, Shell, Honeywell, Sanofi

  • Friday: Keyence, ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb

Microsoft is the stock with the highest index weight in S&P 500 and thus the most important earnings release to watch this week. Analysts expect revenue of $61.1bn up 16% y/y and EBITDA of $30.7bn up from $25.9bn a year ago. Microsoft is riding the investment boom in technology, something we wrote in our equity note Investment boom in technology and earnings review last week. Key things to watch in Microsoft’s result is Azure revenue growth (consensus is 27% in constant currency), outlook and comments on AI-workloads growth, and more colour on the closed Activision Blizzard acquisition that closed on 13 October.

Alphabet (Google) has increased net revenue growth for three straight quarters hitting revenue growth of 11% y/y in Q3. We expect Alphabet to maintain momentum and a broader market perspective their outlook on the global advertising market is a key information for investors as online advertising a pro-cyclical forward looking indicator on the economy as it says a lot about companies’ forecasts for future demand. Cost reductions and higher net revenue growth are expected to boost EBITDA to $33.8bn up from $23.4bn a year ago translating into 44.4% growth. Alphabet is likely going to see positive dynamics around its YouTube business and investors will anxiously await the cloud and AI figures as the sense is that Google is losing a bit of momentum to Microsoft.

Apple is expected to report revenue growth of 1% y/y and EBITDA of $42.3bn up from $38.9bn as the Services segment will bolster the business amid persisting headwinds in its hardware business (mostly iPhones) with Chinese figures likely to be weak. While the Services segment has been the bright spot for Apple for many years the recent changes due to EU regulation could create headwinds going forward. Investors will also carefully scrutinize any mentioning of the outlook for the Vision Pro AR/VR headset.

Amazon seems to have found its steady growth rate in the post pandemic period at around 11% which is also the expected revenue growth rate by analysts with EBITDA expected to hit $29.1bn up from $17.8bn a year ago helped by cost-cutting and a demand boom for its AWS computing power due to generative AI. Its advertising business is also expected to grow around 20%.

Meta has like Alphabet seen its revenue growth rate improving for three straight quarters although estimates indicate revenue growth could slow a bit in Q4 to 21.5% y/y. EBITDA is expected at $22.4bn up from $16.7bn as layoffs and the rebound in global advertising markets are paying off. However, everything is not bright skies for Meta with potentially advertising headwinds brewing in 2024 from Chinese based Shein and Temu as tensions continue between the US and China. Declining engagement on Meta’s Facebook platform might also begin painting a negative narrative.

Can Novo Nordisk keep pace with expectations?

Saxo has many clients in key markets such as Denmark and the Netherlands. The list below shows the key earnings to watch in those two markets.

  • Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, KPN

  • Thursday: DSV, Novozymes, ING Groep

  • Friday: Danske Bank

Novo Nordisk is expected to Q4 revenue of DKK 63.2bn up 31% y/y and EBITDA of DKK 28.3bn up from DKK 19.2bn driven by the boom in its obesity care segment. As the chart below shows, the obesity drugs are seeing an insatiable demand boom with Q3 2023 segment revenue hitting DKK 12.3bn up from DKK 2.4bn in Q3 2021. Investors will focus on Novo Nordisk’s ability to ramp up production of GLP-1s, but also indications of future demand of obesity drugs given its positive impact on co-morbidities (heart disease). In the medium-term the market for obesity drugs is expanding so fast that obesity drugs from Eli Lilly are not seen as a headwind for growth at Novo Nordisk. Expectations are high and with the recent positive sentiment in ASML shares, Novo Nordisk is close to lose its position as the most valuable company in Europe, so the Q4 result on Wednesday is important for Novo Nordisk shares.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992