Technical Update - Metals
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Metals hit by heavy sell offs across the board trying to find support. Analysis covers Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Copper and Iron Ore
Gold spot XAUUSD rejected at 0.618 retracement and are now back around 1,900. Key support is 1,890. AS break below could see XAUUSD dropping to around 1,850 possibly 1,825.
If it trades back above 55 SMA and 1,950 uptrend could be resumed.
Silver spot XAGUSD spot dropped below key support at around $24. Some support at 23.17 level but with RSI being well below 40 threshold there is risk down to 22. To neutralise current short term down trend Silver needs to move back above $25.
Platinum spot XPTUSD took out support at around 957 and is likely to test December 2021 lows around 888. RSI in negative sentiment, Bollinger bands expanding. There will be strong resistance at a 1,000
Palladium testing March troughs at around 2,025. A move below is likely to fuel further sell-off down 1,531 level. To reverse this bearish picture Palladium needs to trade above 2,490.
Copper dropped below support at 462 top find support at the medium term rising trend line and the 200 daily SMA. If Copper takes out yesterdays low at 440 it is likely to sell off down to around 420.
This short term bearish scenario will be neutralized if Copper jumps back above 462.40.
Iron Ore is likely to test support at 143.20. If Iron Ore do a daily close below it has entered Bear territory and is likely to test key support at 132.60. 166.55 is the resistance Iron Ore needs to take out to reverse current bearish correction picture.
Divergence on RSI has warned about a correction was due. RSI value still above 40 however, indicating Iron Ore could be range bound next 1-2 weeks.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)