Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Metals hit by heavy sell offs across the board trying to find support. Analysis covers Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Copper and Iron Ore
Gold spot XAUUSD rejected at 0.618 retracement and are now back around 1,900. Key support is 1,890. AS break below could see XAUUSD dropping to around 1,850 possibly 1,825.
If it trades back above 55 SMA and 1,950 uptrend could be resumed.
Silver spot XAGUSD spot dropped below key support at around $24. Some support at 23.17 level but with RSI being well below 40 threshold there is risk down to 22. To neutralise current short term down trend Silver needs to move back above $25.
Platinum spot XPTUSD took out support at around 957 and is likely to test December 2021 lows around 888. RSI in negative sentiment, Bollinger bands expanding. There will be strong resistance at a 1,000
Palladium testing March troughs at around 2,025. A move below is likely to fuel further sell-off down 1,531 level. To reverse this bearish picture Palladium needs to trade above 2,490.
Copper dropped below support at 462 top find support at the medium term rising trend line and the 200 daily SMA. If Copper takes out yesterdays low at 440 it is likely to sell off down to around 420.
This short term bearish scenario will be neutralized if Copper jumps back above 462.40.
Iron Ore is likely to test support at 143.20. If Iron Ore do a daily close below it has entered Bear territory and is likely to test key support at 132.60. 166.55 is the resistance Iron Ore needs to take out to reverse current bearish correction picture.
Divergence on RSI has warned about a correction was due. RSI value still above 40 however, indicating Iron Ore could be range bound next 1-2 weeks.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.