Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water

Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water

Commodities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Brent and WTI oil are bouncing from rising trend lines. Correction could be over. Henry Hub have been hit by massive selling but seems to have found a floor. Dutch Gas trading sideways around Pivot levels.
Emission ready to break out of range


After a minor correction Brent Crude oil is bouncing of the short-term rising trend line and looks set to resume uptrend. The RSI has bounced of the 40 threshold i.e. still bullish sentiment despite divergence early this month. Resistance at 118.30 and key resistance at 121.25. If breaking above 121.25 June highs are likely to be taken out. 
This likely bullish scenario is to be reversed if Brent Oil breaks below $107

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil dipped below its short-term rising trendline, formed a Doji Morning bottom and reversal pattern indicating higher levels in WTI. Resistance at $115.22. If WTI drops below 101 selling pressure is likely to take WTI down to key support at around $92.93

Source: Saxo Group

Gasoline seems to have found a support at 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at 365 bouncing off the level twice last week and not even testing the rising trend line. Correction in Gasoline could be over. That scenario will be confirmed if Gasoline moves back above the upper trend line I broke below last week. Key resistance at 406.50.
RSI still showing divergence but if RSI closes above 60 and the falling trend line previous highs could be tested. 
If Gasoline closes below 364 the trend line is likely to be broken. Next support at 349 but no strong support before 298

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas seems to find support at $6.00, few pence above the 0.618 retracement of the 2022 bull market. Currently trading above key level at 6.41.
RSI still showing bearish sentiment indicating lower levels. However, if buyers can keep gas above the 6.41 there could upside to 7.70-7.83. 
RSI falling trend line can be key for direction. If RSI is rejected bear trend could resume. If it is broken further upside is likely.

Source: Saxo Group

Dutch TTF gas is hovering around Bull/Bear pivot at €127.50. Trend is up, however. RSI indicates higher levels, but Dutch Gas could be dipping a bit lower in a correction that could take it to test €111. If it does not close below 111, higher levels should be expected.

Source: Saxo Group

Carbon emission Is still range bound in a tighter and tighter range is trying to break out of symmetrical triangle like pattern. A breakout is needed for direction. 
If break out is bearish key support is 75.85. If breakout is bullish May highs at 92.75 could be tested.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992