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US Index Watch: SPX, NDX, DJIA - 16 July
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.
US Index Levels to Watch – 16 July
Key trading levels and signals to watch in US indices
Summary:
The Nasdaq rose to a fresh record high as Nvidia notched a new all-time high but worries about earnings and inflation sent the Dow Jones industrial average lower on Tuesday with most sectors in the red. The 30-stock DJIA lost almost 1% to close at 44,023 as financials declined led by JPMorgan and BlackRock, which both posted quarterly earnings yesterday. The S&P 500 was down 0.4% at the close after hitting a fresh record intraday high at 6,302. Small caps were hit hardest by a jump in US inflation data, with the Russell 2,000 down 2%, while the VIX inched higher.
US inflation rose in June, with the headline CPI level rising to 2.7% from 2.4%, marginally ahead of some expectations. Core inflation rose to 2.9%. The 10yr Treasury yield moved to 4.5% before coming off a touch. The US 30yr yield move above 5% - a potential red flag for markets, but we await to see whether there is a move on this or if it retreats as it did last month.
S&P 500
The bullish outside day on 23 June and subsequent gap higher ignited the rally to the fresh ATHs at 6,284, before making a fresh high yesterday at 6,302 but we are still in the post 3 July consolidation pattern. We suggested that the market would test the trend support off the April lows as MACD and RSI momentum looked stretched and this is now coming into focus around the 6,230/40 area. Price action today indicates this trend is now acting as resistance as the consolidation phase continues. MACD has showsn a more decisive bearish cross and the RSI is breaking down lower. Playbook is still 2018 – runup followed by bottom in March-April before a summer rally. Risk is if this plays out then Q3-Q4 starts to look choppy and tougher for bulls.
US Tech 100 NAS
June 23rd outside candle and gap up chimed with a golden cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moving above the 200-day line to clear the way for bulls to push on to a record high. The last time we saw this move it kicked off the monster 2023-25 rally. NDX rallied 34% in the year after the last occurrence on March 13th, and analysis going back to 1980 suggests the indicator is a bullish signal. Last week we noted that a wedge & broadening top formation “could see a leg down, but bubble before that to clear 23”. Yesterday’s bearish daily gravestone doji candle with a HOD at 23,043 suggests this may be playing out. Momentum trends are weakening and we see evidence of bearish moves on MACD and RSI, with the breakdown in the latter’s long-term uptrend and divergence between the recent upswing in the price action and downward thrust on the RSI. Key test for bears is at 22,238 should it come – right shoulder of a longer-term Head and Shoulders.
US 30 Wall Street
Following 23 June’s clear upside breach of the 200-day line price action rallied back to early March levels but failed to hold and we have seen a clearer push lower and price action breaking down at the 3 March high at 44,033. The golden cross did form butmomentum looks stretched per the MACD, and the April-Jun rally trendline is now acting as resistance. Next big support line at 42,865/75, where the 50-day SMA meets the 20 May swing high and bang on the 23.6% retracement of the Apr-Jun rally.
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