Technical Update - Energy. Oil, Gasoline and Henry Hub gas bouncing off supports. Dutch gas treading water
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Brent and WTI oil are bouncing from rising trend lines. Correction could be over. Henry Hub have been hit by massive selling but seems to have found a floor. Dutch Gas trading sideways around Pivot levels.
Emission ready to break out of range
After a minor correction Brent Crude oil is bouncing of the short-term rising trend line and looks set to resume uptrend. The RSI has bounced of the 40 threshold i.e. still bullish sentiment despite divergence early this month. Resistance at 118.30 and key resistance at 121.25. If breaking above 121.25 June highs are likely to be taken out.
This likely bullish scenario is to be reversed if Brent Oil breaks below $107
WTI Crude oil dipped below its short-term rising trendline, formed a Doji Morning bottom and reversal pattern indicating higher levels in WTI. Resistance at $115.22. If WTI drops below 101 selling pressure is likely to take WTI down to key support at around $92.93
Gasoline seems to have found a support at 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at 365 bouncing off the level twice last week and not even testing the rising trend line. Correction in Gasoline could be over. That scenario will be confirmed if Gasoline moves back above the upper trend line I broke below last week. Key resistance at 406.50.
RSI still showing divergence but if RSI closes above 60 and the falling trend line previous highs could be tested. If Gasoline closes below 364 the trend line is likely to be broken. Next support at 349 but no strong support before 298
Henry Hub gas seems to find support at $6.00, few pence above the 0.618 retracement of the 2022 bull market. Currently trading above key level at 6.41.
RSI still showing bearish sentiment indicating lower levels. However, if buyers can keep gas above the 6.41 there could upside to 7.70-7.83.
RSI falling trend line can be key for direction. If RSI is rejected bear trend could resume. If it is broken further upside is likely.
Dutch TTF gas is hovering around Bull/Bear pivot at €127.50. Trend is up, however. RSI indicates higher levels, but Dutch Gas could be dipping a bit lower in a correction that could take it to test €111. If it does not close below 111, higher levels should be expected.
Carbon emission Is still range bound in a tighter and tighter range is trying to break out of symmetrical triangle like pattern. A breakout is needed for direction.
If break out is bearish key support is 75.85. If breakout is bullish May highs at 92.75 could be tested.
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