Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
WTI oil is testing its upper falling trendline in a wide falling channel and the 55 SMA.
RSI is testing 60 threshold. If WTI closes above the trend line followed by a close above $90.20, and RSI closes above 60 WTI is in a confirmed uptrend. If that scenario unfolds WTI has reversed the down trend since June and a move to strong resistance at 97 would be likely.
If instead WTI drops back and RSI is being rejected at the 60 threshold September lows at 76.25 is likely to be tested and probably taken out.
Brent oil showing almost similar pattern as WTI but still has a few dollars more to move before testing its falling trend line and 55 SMA: RSI is also close to test 60 threshold and close above combined with a Brent price close above 95.80 will confirm a reversal of the down trend since June. Resistance at the 200 SMA and strong resistance at around 105.48
Dutch TTF Gas is in a short term down trend forming a falling channel pattern. Selling pressure has eased however, and Dutch Gas seems to built a base just above key support at €152. We could see Dutch Gas trading between the two falling trendlines in this channel. If Dutch Gas closes above 226 the down trend has revered and higher prices are likely.
A close below 142 could fuel a sell-off towards €100. Some support at around 134-125.
Henry Hub Gas has reached roughly half of the potential target after the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder break out. Bouncing from strong support at around $6.35. Henry Hub could be stuck in a side ways range between 6.30 and 7.15 for a while. Break out direction will be key. A break out to the down side Henry Hub could collapse down to June/July lows around 5.33. Break out to the upside Henry Hub is likely to test the Neckline resistance at around 7.55.
RSI could be key. If RSI is rejected at the falling trend line lower price levels are in the cards.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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