Technical Update - Oil on the bounce - can it reverse downtrend? Gas finding support after sell-off - where to next? Technical Update - Oil on the bounce - can it reverse downtrend? Gas finding support after sell-off - where to next? Technical Update - Oil on the bounce - can it reverse downtrend? Gas finding support after sell-off - where to next?

Technical Update - Oil on the bounce - can it reverse downtrend? Gas finding support after sell-off - where to next?

Commodities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Crude oil could be breaking falling trend testing trend lines. Key resistance levels to be observed.
Natural Gas seems to have found a floor. Key question is; will it bounce from here or is it just a pause in its selling pressure?

WTI oil is testing its upper falling trendline in a wide falling channel and the 55 SMA.
RSI is testing 60 threshold. If WTI closes above the trend line followed by a close above $90.20, and RSI closes above 60 WTI is in a confirmed uptrend. If that scenario unfolds WTI has reversed the down trend since June and a move to strong resistance at 97 would be likely.
If instead WTI drops back and RSI is being rejected at the 60 threshold September lows at 76.25 is likely to be tested and probably taken out.

Brent oil showing almost similar pattern as WTI but still has a few dollars more to move before testing its falling trend line and 55 SMA: RSI is also close to test 60 threshold and close above combined with a Brent price close above 95.80 will confirm a reversal of the down trend since June. Resistance at the 200 SMA and strong resistance at around 105.48

 

Dutch TTF Gas is in a short term down trend forming a falling channel pattern. Selling pressure has eased however, and Dutch Gas seems to built a base just above key support at €152. We could see Dutch Gas trading between the two falling trendlines in this channel. If Dutch Gas closes above 226 the down trend has revered and higher prices are likely.
A close below 142 could fuel a sell-off towards €100. Some support at around 134-125.

Henry Hub Gas has reached roughly half of the potential target after the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder break out. Bouncing from strong support at around $6.35. Henry Hub could be stuck in a side ways range between 6.30 and 7.15 for a while. Break out direction will be key. A break out to the down side Henry Hub could collapse down to June/July lows around 5.33. Break out to the upside Henry Hub is likely to test the Neckline resistance at around 7.55.
RSI could be key. If RSI is rejected at the falling trend line lower price levels are in the cards.

All chart and data source in this analysis: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Boulevard Plaza, Tower 1, 30th floor, office 3002
Downtown, P.O. Box 33641 Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.