Euro getting crushed here, could be more to come.

Today we get the useless US June JOLTS survey (very low response rate, heavy revisions) and the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence survey, which is a bit more interesting for the national mood. The important Expectations component of that survey settled in June near the lows of the range since 2013 after a one-off wipeout in April around Trump’s Liberation Day announcements that reversed in May. The Present Situation component of the confidence survey is in a local downtrend but still relatively elevated in the historic range. The market may be jolted on the JOLTS survey as it was last month on the sudden strength after a string of weaker numbers, but it is a mere distraction ahead of the July US ADP payrolls number tomorrow (which in turn was very misleading last month relative to the strong-ish Nonfarm Payrolls change and 0.2% drop in the Unemployment Rate). The NFP change number has been beyond misleading and yet market participants (and algorithms?) continue to react strongly to it… The most recent QECW (an exhaustive survey that comes out with a significant delay relative to the monthly BLS employment data) showed that 2024 payrolls saw the largest overestimation in 15 years

And I’m not alone in fretting about the quality of US data. A recent Reuters article discusses the poor quality of US economic data, in part due to Trump administration disruptions to the data-collecting bureaucracy.

Note as well that we have the June and Q2 CPI figures up from Australia tonight, a key input ahead of the August 12 RBA meeting (more than 90% priced for a 25-bp cut). As I discussed in my Friday week-ahead piece, I see the Bank of Japan as far more likely to deliver a surprise than the FOMC.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

With the hard reversal, the trend readings for the Euro are reversing about as hard as I have ever seen on the FX Board (-3.2 on the two-day momentum and the day is young….). The US dollar and Japanese yen look somewhat like fellow travelers here, just as they were against the euro when the latter was strong.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
The weak USD trends are falling like flies, with USDCAD set to flip positive today if the rally holds, and EURUSD will likely flip negative tomorrow on hold below the range lows. Note EURAUD set to flip to negative today as well if the price action holds.